Nigel Farage’s victory in Clacton is the least surprising UK by-election result for many years.
Given his relatively comfortable win at the 2024 general election and the fact that none of the main parties fielded a candidate, no one seriously thought the Reform UK leader would lose.
But while Farage called the by-election in an effort to shore up his political position amid a parliamentary probe into Reform’s finances, it is difficult to conclude the gambit worked for him – an impression reinforced by the fact that he didn’t even turn up to hear himself declared the winner this morning.
The Surrey village where it hasn’t rained for two months
The village of Wisley, located between Cobham and Woking, has gone 56 consecutive days without rainfall, a record-breaking streak that is posing risks to prized plants, wildlife and residents.
Vegetation affected
Home to RHS Garden Wisley, which welcomes more than a million visitors each year, Surrey is known for its trees as England’s most densely-wooded county.
However, visitors to the charity’s flagship garden are concerned about how the prolonged dry and hot conditions are impacting the once green surroundings.
RHS Garden Wisley is still staying strong
RHS director of gardens and horticulture, Tim Upson, said while the wider treescape at Wisley remains green and key areas of the garden continue to look good, some parts have been impacted by the prolonged summer heat.
“Some trees, such as the Common Birch, Betula pendula, around the periphery of the garden are yellowing with early leaf drop,” he said.
2
2
Wildfire fears
Lowland heathland reserves such as Wisley and Ockham Commons are highly prone to fires – and these can have a devastating effect on the complex web of flora and fauna (…) Without the checks provided by rainfall, these fires can spread rapidly (…) and have devastating effects on rare wildlife.
James Herd, director of reserves management at Surrey Wildlife Trust
The secretive Russian weapons powerhouse Ukraine is targeting next
Moscow was incensed after Ukraine hit an oil refinery hundreds of miles inside Russia this week.
The Ukrainian drone strike
Local officials said 13 people, including a child had been killed, making it one of the deadliest attacks on a Russian city since 2022.
The drone strike hit the Taneco refinery in Nizhnekamsk. Nizhnekamsk lies in the Republic of Tatarstan and is a top oil producer and refining hub that is central to the war effort.
3
3
A factory essential for Moscow’s war effort
What is most worrying for Putin is that barely an hour’s drive north of Nizhnekamsk is the sprawling Alabuga Special Economic Zone (SEZ) in Yelabuga.
It has become central in the production of suicide drones, first making Shahed drones in conjunction with Iran and now making the Russian Geran drones.
An important target
- Satellite imagery revealed rapid expansion at the drone factory early this year, with it reportedly making 170 to 190 every day.
- The threat posed by the factory makes it a key target, and Ukraine’s rapid advances in weapons technology have brought it into range.
- Ukraine targeted the factory in 2024 and 2025, but only inflicted limited damage.
How Ukraine could disrupt the factory’s production
- Luke Coffey, senior fellow at the Hudson Institute, said that Ukraine could target nearby energy and electrical infrastructure to impact the production.
- Options from other experts included targeting supply chains via direct rail links from China, or hitting it multiple times a week to force Russia to give up production.
Three key points as students receive A-level results
Record levels of A*’s for sixth formers has meant that nearly 263,000 UK pupils have already been accepted on to university courses.
Here are three things to know from this year’s A-level results.
Record proportion of A-level students get top grades in England
More than a quarter (28.5 per cent) of UK entries were awarded an A or A* grade, up by 0.2 percentage points on last year, with 9.6 per cent getting the top A* grade, according to the Joint Council for Qualifications (JCQ).
This saw 228,990 university offer holders get their first choice.
3
4
Boys outperform girls at top A-level grades for second year in row
Boys have outperformed girls for the second year in a row and the gap is widening. The percentage of boys’ grades that were A* or A was 28.9 per cent, pulling ahead of the 28.0 per cent achieved by girls, according to the JCQ.
Last year boys got 28.4 per cent and girls achieved 28.2 per cent of the top grades. However, female students made up a greater proportion of entries and got a higher number of A* and A grades overall.
Regional divide widens in England
The gap between the highest- and lowest-performing regions in England has grown to a record level.
In London, 32.7 per cent of A-level grades were marked at A* or A, up from 32.1 per cent last year. In the North East and the East Midlands, it’s 23.1 per cent.
That’s a 9.6 percentage point gap – up from 9.2 last year and is the largest between these regions since the present system of grading began in 2010.
Universities at risk of going bust before 2026 freshers finish their degrees
Bankruptcies, mergers and course closures are expected to accelerate from 2030 because of a sharp drop-off in British students, according to analysts.
Farage’s 22,239 votes was an increase on the 21,225 he won in 2024. Reform spinners, including MP Lee Anderson, have been quick out of the blocks to claim that Farage increasing his vote on a lower turnout of 44.37 per cent (compared to 58.7 per cent at the general election) is a huge success.
However, given the absence of serious competitors and the respectable 9,455 votes won by novelty candidate Count Binface, it hardly adds up to a ringing endorsement. As people have observed, while Farage got 63.3 per cent of the votes cast, one in four voters (26.9 per cent) preferred to vote for a bin.
Turnout was lower than any other by-election in England this parliament, though higher than two which took place in Scotland in June.
Farage’s decision not to attend this morning’s declaration has raised eyebrows, with Reform providing conflicting reasons for the no-show.
In a speech to supporters earlier, Farage said that Essex Police had advised him of an “organised campaign to disrupt and degrade the result” and that he was “damned if I’m going to stand on a stage having won a resounding victory… to be demeaned and humiliated by nobodies”.
Later, a Reform spokesperson said that it was more than humiliation, with Essex Police advising Farage of a “credible threat against him”.
But this was contradicted by Essex Police, who said that they had not advised any candidate to stay away and that there was a policing operation “to ensure the safety and security of all participants in the count”.
Anderson poured further fuel on the controversy this morning by suggesting on BBC Breakfast that the force had lied – he told the broadcaster that some police forces were “about as honest as you lot [the media]”.
There will be suspicions that Farage decided not to come because of the embarrassment of standing alongside the 33 other candidates in the by-election – the most in British electoral history – and particularly his nemesis, Count Binface.
It took the returning officer five minutes and 44 seconds to get through all the candidates.
Critics will say it smacks of sour grapes from Farage because the by-election he triggered developed into a farce rather than the glorious acclamation he had hoped for.
Beyond today’s row over the no-show, Farage faces a much more serious threat in the shape of the Parliamentary Commissioner for Standards.
His re-election formally reactivates the Commissioner’s investigation into whether he should have declared the £5m “gift” he received from the crypto-billionaire Christopher Harborne.
Farage had resigned and triggered the contest in a pre-emptive attempt to demonstrate his legitimacy and dissuade opponents from trying to force a by-election in Clacton in relation to the Harborne probe.
Reform spinners will spend today arguing that the 66.3 per cent of the vote achieved by Farage proves that a second contest is futile. But Labour, the Tories and Restore Britain will all be up for a re-run if they get the chance.
While Farage would be the heavy favourite to win a second contest, if one does occur, it would just amplify the accusations of financial sleaze which have already been so damaging to Reform.
In the coming weeks, Farage’s future will hang on the answer to a couple of questions.
Will the Standards Commissioner find against him, and if he does, will Farage be punished with a 10-day-plus suspension necessary to trigger a recall petition for a second by-election?
And perhaps more importantly, in the run-up to Reform’s party conference at the beginning of September, will Farage be able to move the public conversation away from financial questions and back on to his preferred territory of immigration and crime?
The events of recent weeks – including mega-dinghies crossing the Channel and Andy Burnham’s flipflopping over prison releases – will at least give him some hope that the latter is possible.