The Manchester City verdict is a “seismic” moment for English football with the potential to cost the club hundreds of millions of pounds in compensation and shake up the sport’s existing order.
Premier League clubs were informed on Thursday that a verdict had been reached in the case – with City understood to have been found guilty on 114 of the 115 charges.
Stefan Borson, a former City adviser and the head of sport at law firm McCarthy Denning, said: “It’s seismic and a massive development in the history of English football.
“There’s no sugarcoating it – if they have been found guilty on everything, it’s very hard to see where Manchester City go from here.”
What happens next?
The Premier League refused to comment on Friday, pointing to confidentiality. City released their own statement saying the process was “ongoing”.
The next step is for the independent commission to hold a sanctions hearing in which the Premier League and City will be able to make representations. The verdict – which legal sources believe will run to “hundreds of pages” will then be published, with Borson believing it is likely to be “scathing”.
City would then be free to appeal but The i Paper has been told it could be “six to 12 months” at the earliest before the process is concluded – and an appeal (which City would almost certainly launch) could take just as long.
Would an appeal have any chance?
Borson believes the chances of an appeal being successful are “basically hopeless” and the decision is “very serious”.
“In terms of trying to appeal the factual side of things, you’re going to have a scathing decision,” he said.
“Over hundreds of pages it will say things Manchester City are not happy with and it’s very difficult to see how that is overturned by an appeal hearing.
“The appeal will say ‘We didn’t hear the original case, but a competent board of three did; it was held over 12 weeks; the parties had some of the best representation around; they were free to present their arguments; the witnesses they wanted to; and whatever documents they wanted to present’.
“Unless there’s a point of law the original body got wrong – which is extremely unlikely in my opinion – the appeal will say they’re not in a position to undermine the original hearing.”
What are City saying?
City insiders insist they are remaining calm at this stage and very little has changed in the investigation. Senior figures still cannot give anything away, as it is an ongoing legal process.
The club have pleaded their innocence throughout and have not stepped back in their pursuit of further greatness, having spent a colossal £700m on new players across the previous three transfer windows.
City have also spared no expense in assembling the finest legal minds to fight their case, with a legal bill understood to be closing in on £100m.
The i Paper has been told that some senior staff at the club are disillusioned as they were given no indication in any future planning – something City have remained a market leader in during the Sheikh Mansour era – that this verdict “was a possibility”.
Focusing on the coming season will be “tough” from here, others said.
It is understood that it is highly unlikely City will start any appeal process until after any sanctions have been announced. Only then will they take their fight with the Premier League further.
What are the potential punishments?
There is no precedent for what happens next but experts believe it is likely to be “severe” if the verdicts stand.
A – resulting in certain relegation – feels like the most likely outcome given the precedent of Everton being docked eight points for two breaches of PSR in the 2024-25 season.
Sources at Hill Dickinson stadium are “watching the process play out” but there has always been anger on Merseyside at the scale of their punishment compared to others.
Significant fines could also be levied, with the possibility of fines matching the prize money they won during the period. But given the scale of breaches, sporting sanctions are almost certain.
Fans and rivals appear to favour stripping City of many of their honours, with Rio Ferdinand suggesting Manchester United should be handed another Premier League title.
Which trophies did Man City win from 2009-2018?
With the teams who finished runners-up or City beat in the final in brackets.
- 2011-12 (Manchester United)
- 2013-14 (Liverpool)
- 2017-18 (Manchester United)
- 2011 (Stoke City)
- 2014 (Sunderland)
- 2016 (Liverpool)
- 2018 (Arsenal)
One source told The i Paper, “everything should be on the table”, but experts think that is unlikely.
“Stripping titles is highly unlikely where there is already precedent for points sanctions from previous breaches of the PSR rules, and financial penalties would be a more common alternative sanction,” Daniel Gore, a disputes partner at Withers LLP, said.
One Premier League source suggested that punishment could come in the form of a colossal points deduction of “something like 50 or 60 points” so that they are actually guaranteed to be relegated, but have the ignominy of being relegated rather than just demoted.
Another insider suggested a points deduction could be spread over several seasons to ensure they would not challenge for the Premier League title for many years.
Will their rivals sue them?
City could be on the hook for hundreds of millions of pounds if clubs who have missed out on Europe and titles pursue their own compensation cases.
Liverpool, Arsenal, Tottenham and Manchester United are among the clubs understood to have signalled their intention to do just that – and they will feel emboldened by Burnley winning a similar case against Everton (although it is being appealed).
“The fascinating element will be to see what the other clubs in both the Premier League and lower leagues do in response to any findings, in light of the decision in the Burnley vs Everton case,” Gore said.
“That case is under appeal but a precedent for damages as a result of financial breaches has been set.”