Britain is facing a pensions time-bomb as the number of people reaching pension age rises far faster than the working population – piling pressure on the future of the state pension triple lock and increasing the prospect of higher taxes.
The latest Office for National Statistics (ONS) figures show the working-age population increasing by about 2.2 million, or 5 per cent, between 2024 and 2049.
Over the same period, the number of people of pensionable age is projected to increase by 2.9 million, or almost 24 per cent.
The most expensive moving day of the year is this week
August 28 could be four times busier than a normal moving day and as a result, much more expensive.
High demand raises prices
Research by the HomeOwners Alliance estimated that nearly 23,000 households will be moving this Friday, with the surging demand pushing up prices.
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When is it cheaper to move?
Tuesday and Wednesday were generally the cheapest days to move, according to Moving Compared. The research found that costs could rise by as much as £500, depending on when you decide to move.
- Moving Compared also warned that whilst Fridays are convenient, they are the “least forgiving day” because there is no working day afterwards to resolve problems.
Kit Harington joins HBO’s Harry Potter – who else is in the cast?
Kit Harington is joining the HBO TV series as famous author turned Hogwarts professor Gilderoy Lockhart.
He is replacing Nicholas Hoult, who left due to scheduling issues, according to HBO. Here is everyone else currently cast in the show.
The big names we know so far
The veteran actor, with his collection of Emmys and Oscars, will take the role of Dumbledore.
Frost will don the shaggy beard of Hogwarts groundskeeper Hagrid.
A returning cast member, Davis will continue his original role as master of charms Professor Filius Flitwick.
A closer look at the detail
Cast members have faced some backlash for their decision to join the show, from those who are opposed to J K Rowling’s views on gender identity and trans rights.
The HBO series is expected to take 10 years to complete, as producers plan multiple seasons covering each of Rowling’s seven books, which the eight blockbuster films were originally based on.
The other names to watch
- Harry Potter – Dominic Mclaughlin
- Hermione Granger – Arabella Stanton
- Ron Weasley – Alastair Stout
- Garrick Ollivander – Anton Lesser
- Neville Longbottom – Rory Wilmot
- Madam Hooch – Louise Brealey
- Professor McGonagall – Janet McTeer
- Professor Snape – Paapa Essiedu
- Draco Malfoy – Lox Pratt
The other names to watch
- Lucius Malfoy – Johnny Flynn
- Petunia Dursley – Bel Powley
- Vernon Dursley – Daniel Rigby
- Dudley Dursley – Amos Kitson
- Molly Weasley – Katherine Parkinson
- Cornelius Fudge – Bertie Carvel
- Professor Quirrell – Luke Thallon
go deeper on this topic
The Harry Potter
cast have cursed themselves for ever
A part in HBO’s is an irresistible opportunity for an actor, but I do wonder if any of the cast are regretting their decision to get involved. Any association with Rowling is a drink from a poisoned chalice – a curse that will never lift. Is it worth it?
The seven taxes Burnham could raise to fund his spending spree
Andy Burnham has declined to rule out raising taxes in his autumn Budget, saying he would not be “unrealistic” about the state of the public finances and vowed to take a “careful approach”.
Raising income tax, national insurance or VAT
These are the biggest revenue raising levers at Chancellor John Healey’s disposal, making up 54 per cent of the tax base. But Labour’s 2024 general election manifesto committed not to raise any of these.
- Burnham also pledged to do the same, so going back on his word would be extremely damaging for a Prime Minister who has made much about restoring trust.
This is one of the more likely options and currently sits at 18 per cent for basic-rate income taxpayers and 24 per cent for higher and additional-rate taxpayers.
Raising the tax is popular in the Labour Party; however, predictions on how much it would raise range from £14bn to actually costing the Treasury money if people delayed asset sales or moved overseas.
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Wealth tax
Burnham has faced calls for this from the left and last month Gary Lineker was among 120 so-called “Patriotic Millionaires” who signed a letter backing paying more tax in the form of a 2 per cent levy on wealth over £10m.
Some economists claim that it could raise £10bn a year and only affect the 1,000 most affluent households, but sceptics have said it could lead to wealthy individuals ceasing to be UK tax residents or “gaming” the valuation of their assets.
Pension tax changes
The Government could cut the size of the tax-free lump sum people can take from their pensions, which is either 25 per cent of the amount or £268,275 – whichever is lower.
Another option would be to limit pension tax relief. However, this would be a bold and risky step, with Sir Keir Starmer previously facing a hugely damaging backlash after cutting winter fuel payments.
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Sin taxes
Burnham could target business sectors or activities which he thinks are “anti-social” or damaging for people – with him already focusing on reducing reliefs for vape shops and betting establishments.
Healey could also raise taxes on cigarettes, vapes, unhealthy food and alcohol. These tax raises often incur little political cost but tend to raise trivial sums.
The four signs the UK’s stance towards Russia is escalating
Andy Burnham has faced down threats from the Kremlin over Britain’s increasing support for Ukraine by telling Vladimir Putin he “started the fire”.
Burnham says he won’t back down
The war of words broke out after Moscow warned that the UK sharing long-range missile blueprints with Kyiv would “add fuel to the fire” of the conflict.
During a visit to Kyiv on Monday, to mark the anniversary of Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, Burnham insisted there would be no backing down from assistance to Kyiv.
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Tougher rhetoric from Burnham
While Sir Keir Starmer was a steadfast supporter of Ukraine, Burnham’s comments will be seen as more outspoken. They come as the perceived threat from Moscow has increased in the last few months.
With UK-made drones being used against Russia by Ukraine, Tobias Ellwood, a former defence minister, said Britain “should brace [itself] for grey zone retaliation. And for this we are woefully unprepared”.
Increased assistance
Britain has been contributing to Kyiv’s war effort since the start of the Russian invasion, but the revelation that UK-made drones were being used to strike Russia, as well as that Britain has shared blueprints for long-range missiles, reach a new scale of significance.
- Downing Street would not say whether this was a Starmer or Burnham policy, but a No 10 spokeswoman said the UK would continue to help arm Ukraine.
New battlefield data partnership
The latest support, announced on Monday evening, comes in the form of a new partnership between London and Kyiv on AI.
Under the deal, the UK will have access to Ukraine’s Avengers AI Labs database to develop tools for use on the battlefield.
Britain described the platform as a “goldmine of battlefield data”. In return, the UK will offer scientists and tech companies access to develop new battlefield tools.
Sorties by RAF planes
On Monday, an RAF “Rivet Joint” surveillance aircraft was spotted by military observers over Lithuania and northern Poland, near to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
While sorties such as these are not unusual, the timing of the mission – reported by the X account OSINT Defender – could suggest the UK is gearing up for potential retaliation from Moscow for its support for Ukraine.
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How much caffeine is in your favourite cup of high street coffee?
Coffees from high street chains can vary “wildly” in the amount of caffeine they contain, a new study by Which? has shown.
Costa tops caffeine leaderboards
The research found that a medium cappuccino from Costa contains 325mg of caffeine, almost three-and-a-half times that of the same drink at Starbucks, at 89mg.
This caffeine content is around the same amount as four cans of Red Bull. Costa also has the most caffeine in its espresso shots – 100mg per serving – and its flat whites (241mg).
Where the other chains stand
Greggs is second in the caffeine standings, with 235mg in its cappuccino and Caffe Nero third, with 221mg.
Starbucks serves the least amount of caffeine across all its drinks, but levels have increased in its espressos, cappuccinos and filter coffees over three years.
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The areas included in first wave of new housing fund
In an interview with The i Paper, Housing Secretary Angela Rayner has said the Government is “tilting” towards council and social housebuilding in a bid to reduce the number of homeless families in expensive temporary accommodation.
A surge in social housing
A total of £10bn worth of funding is going to councils and housing associations to build more than 70,000 homes across England, 60 per cent of which must be social housing, according to Rayner.
- The £10bn announced yesterday is set to be followed by approximately £21bn for council and social housing, which has not yet been allocated.
The areas receiving the funds
Of the £10bn, the following mayoral authorities will receive:
- An additional 33 “strategic partners” that will receive the rest of the money will be announced in due course, the Government said.
- The Mayor of London, Sir Sadiq Khan, will be given £6bn to spend.
‘Changing order of queue’ will not solve social housing issue
Reform UK has pledged to prioritise British-born workers under 35 when allocating social housing if the party enters government, but charities and experts have warned that “changing the order of the queue” would not solve the issue of social housing.
The Government Actuary’s Department highlighted the changing ratio in a bulletin published last week. For every 1,000 people of working age, there are currently 280 people of pensionable age.
But by 2049, that figure is projected to rise to 329, while the number of people aged 85 and over is expected to roughly double, from 1.8 million in mid-2024 to 3.6 million, adding to pressure on health and social care.
The demographic shift also points to a growing reliance on migrant labour to sustain the workforce as Britain ages.
Separate ONS projections show deaths outnumbering births by 2.5 million over the next 25 years, while net migration of 5.6 million is expected to provide the only source of overall population growth.
Pressure on the triple lock
The figures will put even more pressure on the long-term future of the state pension triple lock, which guarantees that the state pension rises each year by whichever is highest: inflation, average earnings or 2.5 per cent.
This has seen large increases in the state pension over the last few years, due to high inflation and wage growth.
But with the cost of the state pension standing at £146.1bn – almost half the entire £333.7bn welfare budget – the cost of the triple lock is increasingly being seen as unsustainable in the long term.
Reforming it, however, will be difficult as older people are the most likely to vote. Labour has pledged to keep it for the length of this Parliament, despite the Office for Budget Responsibility saying last year it would cost £15.5bn annually by then – and will add £43bn to state pension spending by 2070.
Lord Jim O’Neill, the former Goldman Sachs chief economist and an adviser to Burnham, has called for what he described as “genuine welfare reform”.
He specifically said he would include the state pension triple lock in that reform, arguing for a “more sensible approach to welfare spending”.
David Gauke, vice-chair of Prosper UK, a cross-party organisation campaigning for economic growth, investment and productivity, and former Tory chief secretary to the Treasury, told The i Paper: “Given the forthcoming demographic changes and the urgent need to reassure the financial markets of our fiscal credibility, our political parties need to face up to the reality that the triple lock is unsustainable.”
However, Burnham told The i Paper in an exclusive interview in June that he would leave the triple lock untouched, insisting Labour must honour its manifesto promise to millions of pensioners at a moment of collapsing public trust.
Prospect of tax rises
The figures come as the Government faces immediate choices over how to pay for its spending commitments.
Andy Burnham refused to rule out tax rises on Monday, acknowledging the country faced a “challenging” financial outlook.
The Prime Minister said he would not be “unrealistic” about the state of the public finances, while reiterating Labour’s manifesto commitment not to increase the main rates of income tax, VAT or employee national insurance.
He said the Government would take a cautious approach to the economy and avoid measures that risked damaging jobs, household finances or interest rates.
However, many of his closest advisors have backed changes to capital gains tax (CGT), which is levied on gains made when an asset – like equity in a company or a second home – is sold.
It has previously been backed by Burnham’s second-in-command, First Secretary of State Louise Haigh and Defence Secretary Wes Streeting.
Streeting has called equalising CGT with the income tax rates of 20, 40 and 45 per cent a “wealth tax that works”.
Lord O’Neil has said, however, he is against wealth taxes, including increasing capital gains, arguing the Government needs to encourage “genuine risk-taking and more entrepreneurs”.