In 1961, at the height of the Cold War, a telegenic young American president had a first face-to-face meeting with his thuggish Soviet counterpart Nikita Khrushchev. John F Kennedy never forgot the drubbing he suffered during those days in Vienna. The Berlin Wall went up two months later.
Tomorrow at the United Nations in New York, the telegenic Prime Minister Andy Burnham, a tyro in international power politics, will have his first encounter in-person with US President Donald Trump, the biggest bully on the block. Will he flinch or stand his ground?
Unlike the Kennedy-Khurshev summit which unfolded over two days, Burnham has a scheduled 30 minutes, the diplomatic equivalent of a speed date. But first impressions matter. Trump respects tough guys like China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Lesser mortals and smaller countries, not so much.
Burnham thinks the best way to tackle Trump is “to be yourself”. As he told football pundit and podcaster Gary Lineker: “Where you disagree, do it. But do it in a way where you’re kind of meeting where he’s at.”
Right.
Except Trump could be in one place one day, and on an entirely different planet the next. He weaponises uncertainty. Even the best-prepared plans or gifts (anyone for Everton toffees?) can be laid to waste by a President who could bring up the UK’s online safety bill, the digital services tax, illegal immigration, offshore oil drilling licences or windmills.
One thing is for sure: the world is going through a period of extreme stress, from the bond markets to energy prices and the wars in Iran and Ukraine. Britain stands exposed. Government borrowing costs are spiking, the cost of living is rising (again) and Russia’s hybrid warfare is intensifying.
Yet, Trump has gone out of his way to unnerve the Burnham Government. Apart from his relentless pro-Putin stand on Ukraine, he has declared he’d “love to see a united Ireland”. He also hinted the US might not come to the aid of the UK in defence of the Falkland Islands, where Argentina has revived its territorial claims.
There’s every chance Trump is simply chasing headlines, but words bring jeopardy and often have consequences. Trump’s loose lips could offer false hope to nationalists in Ireland and in Argentina. Burnham’s challenge is how to avoid rising to the bait, without Trump dismissing him as a patsy.
He could try channeling his inner Mark Carney. Canada’s prime minister has taken serious risks in standing up to Trump’s bullying. By walking away from a one-sided trade deal, Carney has shown willingness to absorb economic pain. He’s also shown inventiveness in pursuing special associate membership status with the EU – partly as a hedge but also as leverage with Canada’s obstreperous southern neighbour.
By contrast, Labour has been a study in timidity in relationship to the EU, while sticking to the illusion that there is something called the special relationship (barring the still crucial intelligence links). The truth is that Burnham cannot disguise the UK’s status as junior partner. Nor the fact that he is, in effect, a supplicant. Trump, who can sniff weakness at 10 paces, knows this.
That said, Burnham will press Trump to release Patriot missiles to shore up Ukraine’s defence ahead of a grim winter. He will hope to discover where the US is heading on the Iran war, and where the US will come down in the race to be the next UN secretary general. But depending on Trump’s mood, the answers may prove elusive.
The problem is the disdain the President and his close advisers hold for the Labour Party, particularly under the Starmer government which pursued flattery to the point of obsequiousness. (King Charles offered an infinitely classier approach but that feels like an eternity ago).
There’s a pervasive view in the Trump administration that, 10 years on, the UK has not made the most of Brexit. To paraphrase US secretary of state Dean Acheson’s famous post-colonial put down: Britain has lost EU club membership but has yet to find a role.
Nobody seems capable of getting anything done, a frustrated White House source told me the other day. The only truly effective operator at an international level, the source said, is Tony Blair. This is why the former Labour prime minister, business tycoon and philanthropist has been rewarded with a seat on the US Board of Peace (Trump’s rival to the United Nations).
Burnham, whom Trump has already branded “extremely liberal”, has done himself no favours by refusing to commit to the 3 per cent defence spending target by the end of Parliament. Washington sees a mismatch between British rhetoric playing up the Russia threat and the reality that British soldiers cannot afford to practise with live bullets.
In the final resort, Burnham may decide that his best hope is damage limitation. A room at the UN is a safer prospect than the Oval Office where world leaders are regularly humiliated live on television. Living to fight another day has its attractions, especially as a crucial Budget looms where Burnham will finally have to show his hand in terms of tax and spending priorities.
Trump too has bigger fish to fry. After his brief encounter with Burnham, he will head into a two-day summit with President Xi in Washington. Everything will be on the agenda: trade tariffs, Taiwan, technology transfers, the latest cyber threats posed by rogue AI and much more.
This is the new world order. It is pitiless, leaving little room for declining middle powers like Britain. Burnham will need to grow up fast.