The United States Air Force has suddenly withdrawn all of its bombers from RAF Fairford, amid claims that the Americans are concerned about Britain’s security.
The White House is mercurial, to put it mildly, and Donald Trump’s Maga movement is prone to indulge wild fantasies about our country. “Britain has fallen. The United Islamic Kingdom is no longer a reliable ally”, one of its more unhinged Congressmen tweeted this morning.
Given such bizarre gibberings, it’s easy to assume that the withdrawal from Fairford and any concerns underlying it are just more of the same. This is not an “Islamic Kingdom”, and if we’ve “fallen” then it’s more likely due to tripping on a pothole than any feverish conspiracy theory.
However, there’s a more uncomfortable question that must be asked: behind all this bluster and fantasy, might the Americans have a point about our country becoming insecure?
Consider a series of concerning events over the last six weeks. In late August, members of the group “People Against Genocide” attacked the Buckinghamshire factory of Martin-Baker, which makes ejector seats for military jets. This followed a series of attacks by Palestine Action and others on defence manufacturers across Britain.
In early September, hundreds of masked men from the far-right group “Patriot Platform” – led by convicted kidnapper Danny Tommo – blockaded access to Dover, the country’s most important port. They eventually dispersed without any violence, but for a number of hours a key site of national importance was disrupted by a rabble whom the police were not able to shut down.
Last month, five men were arrested after a farmer spotted a masked group with three vans acting suspiciously near RAF Fairford, a key base for American bombers. A sixth, a dual British-Iranian national, was arrested shortly afterwards. The investigation is ongoing, but the incident was reminiscent of the 2025 attack when anti-Israel activists successfully broke into RAF Brize Norton and damaged British military aircraft.
And last weekend, two Iranian men appeared in court “accused of preparing acts of terrorism targeting the Jewish community in Manchester through the use of a homemade explosive device”, having been arrested on the eve of Yom Kippur. Both had arrived in Britain illegally by crossing the Channel on small boats. A year before, two Jewish men were killed in a terrorist attack on a synagogue in Heaton Park.
Put these events together, and this is not a picture of a country which is fully in control of its security. Terrorism plots against civilians and military sites, including by people who have illegally crossed our borders and were subsequently allowed to remain in Britain. Radical homegrown activists of the far-left and far-right are targeting crucial pillars of our national infrastructure and the domestic defence supply chain.
It isn’t just the Americans who have reason to be worried about this – we should be even more concerned than them about our safety and security.
In that sense, those 12 USAF bombers that were at RAF Fairford are a canary in the coal mine. American bombers have operated there for decades, using the site with confidence as the US’s only European heavy bomber airfield. No longer, it seems.
Some readers may be delighted to see them fly the coop, redeploying back to the United States, due to dislike of Trump or opposition to his war with Iran. Fair enough, if that’s your preference, but any satisfaction people here might gain from the news is undermined by the fact that the Americans have the option to go home, while we are stuck here facing the security problems that led them to leave.
If we cannot prevent yobs from blockading our ports, or radicalised students from smashing up planes and defence tech, then you can be assured that things would be far worse in any real conflict with a nation state.
We’re fortunate that in recent months alleged terrorist plots like those in Fairford and Manchester have been spotted and disrupted by a combination of luck, the general public and our intelligence services. But you cannot ride on good fortune forever – in the words of the IRA after the Brighton bombing, “we only have to be lucky once – you will have to be lucky always.”
This is a dual blow to our safety. The first is direct: a lack of security puts our people and our country in danger from terrorists and hostile powers, making it more likely that one day they will succeed.
The second is more pernicious, and even more perilous: if we develop a reputation for being vulnerable, it deters our allies from trusting us at exactly the same time as encouraging our enemies to redouble their efforts to attack.
Undoubtedly, that is made worse by the erratic nature of the current US President, but it would be true at any time.
We and our allies are safer when Britain is visibly strong, trustworthy and capable. If we appear weak and unable to protect ourselves, then we are giving our friends reason to doubt us. Insecurity breeds more insecurity – the Americans can see it, but it’s our problem to fix.