Andy Burnham has something to say about everything. Brexit, “loudcasting”, slavery, stocking up on baked beans and bottled water in case of a national emergency – no topic is too big or too small for the Prime Minister. But does his “Always On” media strategy add up to anything?
Burnham says he entered Downing Street armed with a 10-year plan for government. Since his predecessor Sir Keir Starmer had no obvious plan, this made eminent sense. It was also brassy. Having achieved power through a de facto party coup, the usurper from Manchester was pitching two terms as prime minister to get the job done.
Burnham’s Ten Year Plan – now pushed back until 2027 – is long on ambition: a “rewired” state built around devolution; a new National Care Service for the elderly; decentralised control of water, energy, housing and transport. But it is a vision in search of a budget and strategy. The policies remain vague; the execution, based on Burnham’s own record, questionable.
Burnham and his deadpan Chancellor John Healey could learn a lesson or two about Chinese (and Asian) long-termism. Now, the UK is not communist China. Nor is a debt-ridden, flatlining Chinese economy the model for peers it once was. But the People’s Republic’s record of lifting hundreds of millions out of poverty and driving AI-led industrial innovation underlines the value of translating words into action.
Burnham and Healey ducked hard choices in last week’s Budget. The Government is now spending 46 per cent of GDP – the highest level in peacetime, bar the pandemic. Yet Labour deferred cutting the country’s spiralling welfare bill, now forecast to grow to more than £400bn by 2030-31 – more than three times the annual defence budget.
The absence of urgency is glaring given the abject performance of the UK economy. In the decade since Brexit, average annual growth in living standards – measured by real household disposable income – is a miserly 0.3 per cent a year. This is not going to improve. The Office of Budget Responsibility forecasts the same 0.3 per cent for the 10 years to 2030-31. As the Martin Wolf wrote, “Team Burnham are fiddling while Britain stagnates”.
Burnham’s riposte is that he needs time. Time to reassure his restive Labour backbenchers (who this week watered down Shabana Mahmood’s immigration reforms); time to cement his centre-left coalition; time to address welfare reform; time to tackle the chronic problem of one million Neets (youngsters not in education, employment or training); time to repair a creaking British state.
Business, already disillusioned by the drift of the Starmer years, holds out little hope for change. “I’ve met people like Burnham,” a frustrated boss of a leading financial services company told me over a City dinner, “he is Mr Jam Tomorrow.”
Restoring economic growth is paramount. The good news is that remedies are hiding in plain sight. Take a look at The Growth Papers, a King’s College of London-funded project led by Sir John Kingman and Baroness Shriti Vadera, both veterans of Whitehall and the City of London.
Their policy prescriptions are less about process (the curse of modern government) and more geared to outcome. They highlight the Oxford-Cambridge arc as one of the most innovative places in the world, with a must-read guide on how to revive one of Britain’s best near-term growth opportunities.
The other obvious avenue is Europe. To Burnham’s credit, he has broken the Brexit taboo. Ten years after the fateful referendum decision to leave the EU, he has dared to talk about the possibility of rejoining the club, alongside other options such as the EU customs union and/or the single market.
The Brexit divorce was traumatic, not just for the UK but also for the rest of Europe. The UK economy lost growth, anything between four and six per cent of GDP. On 20 November, a UK-EU summit will agree to lift checks on food, drink and veterinary products.
To his credit, Starmer started the process of “dynamic alignment” on EU rules and standards, which should rekindle British exporters’ interest in trade with their nearest neighbours, even if it does not reset the dial.
Burnham has gone further by reopening the debate on freedom of movement – one of the core tenets of the single market, albeit one freighted with controversy. Many still conflate it with illegal immigration or a lack of border security.
Any plan to rejoin the single market or indeed the EU would require at least one, maybe two referendums. The first could be on opening negotiations, the second on the deal. It would indeed fit into a 10-year plan. But Europe, especially France, will have their own say on the terms of re-engagement or indeed membership. Before we left the EU we had a favourable deal on EU budget contributions, opt-outs galore, including on the euro – they are no longer possible.
Burnham is a charmer as well as a good communicator. “Always on” comes straight out of the Trump playbook. But this week’s midterm election shellacking suffered by the Republican Party shows the limits of a media strategy built on vibes. At some point soon, we need to see the colour of Burnham’s money.