One spring afternoon in 2019, I sat on a couch in the Oval Office as Donald Trump raged about the southern border and demanded we seal it entirely. His son-in-law Jared Kushner gently explained that closing a port of entry wouldn’t stop migrant crossings – people would simply go around it – and that the only real casualties would be American businesses.
“Jared, I don’t care,” the US President snapped. “That’s not the point! The point is, it will make Mexico hurt.”
Trump has a theory about leverage. His leadership philosophy – in a nutshell – is that threats are worthless and that you must damage someone else first if you want to get them to come to the negotiating table. Whether the damage accomplishes anything is irrelevant. Whether the target is an enemy or a neighbour is irrelevant. The pain is the point.
This is hardly what I’d call the “art” of the deal. This is junk art. Trump has brought all of the aggression of a hothead negotiator onto the world stage, secured nothing, and put the costs onto billions of innocent people while doing irreparable damage to his own side.
The problem with the Trump theory of leverage is that there is no scenario in which his opponent simply refuses. Now he’s stuck and dragging the world deeper into the aftermath of his ego-driven mistakes. His winning doctrine is backfiring badly in Iran – and now he’s run the same gimmick against a close ally in Canada – where it failed even faster.
The most expensive moving day of the year is this week
August 28 could be four times busier than a normal moving day and as a result, much more expensive.
High demand raises prices
Research by the HomeOwners Alliance estimated that nearly 23,000 households will be moving this Friday, with the surging demand pushing up prices.
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When is it cheaper to move?
Tuesday and Wednesday were generally the cheapest days to move, according to Moving Compared. The research found that costs could rise by as much as £500, depending on when you decide to move.
- Moving Compared also warned that whilst Fridays are convenient, they are the “least forgiving day” because there is no working day afterwards to resolve problems.
Kit Harington joins HBO’s Harry Potter – who else is in the cast?
Kit Harington is joining the HBO TV series as famous author turned Hogwarts professor Gilderoy Lockhart.
He is replacing Nicholas Hoult, who left due to scheduling issues, according to HBO. Here is everyone else currently cast in the show.
The big names we know so far
The veteran actor, with his collection of Emmys and Oscars, will take the role of Dumbledore.
Frost will don the shaggy beard of Hogwarts groundskeeper Hagrid.
A returning cast member, Davis will continue his original role as master of charms Professor Filius Flitwick.
A closer look at the detail
Cast members have faced some backlash for their decision to join the show, from those who are opposed to J K Rowling’s views on gender identity and trans rights.
The HBO series is expected to take 10 years to complete, as producers plan multiple seasons covering each of Rowling’s seven books, which the eight blockbuster films were originally based on.
The other names to watch
- Harry Potter – Dominic Mclaughlin
- Hermione Granger – Arabella Stanton
- Ron Weasley – Alastair Stout
- Garrick Ollivander – Anton Lesser
- Neville Longbottom – Rory Wilmot
- Madam Hooch – Louise Brealey
- Professor McGonagall – Janet McTeer
- Professor Snape – Paapa Essiedu
- Draco Malfoy – Lox Pratt
The other names to watch
- Lucius Malfoy – Johnny Flynn
- Petunia Dursley – Bel Powley
- Vernon Dursley – Daniel Rigby
- Dudley Dursley – Amos Kitson
- Molly Weasley – Katherine Parkinson
- Cornelius Fudge – Bertie Carvel
- Professor Quirrell – Luke Thallon
go deeper on this topic
The Harry Potter
cast have cursed themselves for ever
A part in HBO’s is an irresistible opportunity for an actor, but I do wonder if any of the cast are regretting their decision to get involved. Any association with Rowling is a drink from a poisoned chalice – a curse that will never lift. Is it worth it?
The seven taxes Burnham could raise to fund his spending spree
Andy Burnham has declined to rule out raising taxes in his autumn Budget, saying he would not be “unrealistic” about the state of the public finances and vowed to take a “careful approach”.
Raising income tax, national insurance or VAT
These are the biggest revenue raising levers at Chancellor John Healey’s disposal, making up 54 per cent of the tax base. But Labour’s 2024 general election manifesto committed not to raise any of these.
- Burnham also pledged to do the same, so going back on his word would be extremely damaging for a Prime Minister who has made much about restoring trust.
This is one of the more likely options and currently sits at 18 per cent for basic-rate income taxpayers and 24 per cent for higher and additional-rate taxpayers.
Raising the tax is popular in the Labour Party; however, predictions on how much it would raise range from £14bn to actually costing the Treasury money if people delayed asset sales or moved overseas.
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Wealth tax
Burnham has faced calls for this from the left and last month Gary Lineker was among 120 so-called “Patriotic Millionaires” who signed a letter backing paying more tax in the form of a 2 per cent levy on wealth over £10m.
Some economists claim that it could raise £10bn a year and only affect the 1,000 most affluent households, but sceptics have said it could lead to wealthy individuals ceasing to be UK tax residents or “gaming” the valuation of their assets.
Pension tax changes
The Government could cut the size of the tax-free lump sum people can take from their pensions, which is either 25 per cent of the amount or £268,275 – whichever is lower.
Another option would be to limit pension tax relief. However, this would be a bold and risky step, with Sir Keir Starmer previously facing a hugely damaging backlash after cutting winter fuel payments.
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Sin taxes
Burnham could target business sectors or activities which he thinks are “anti-social” or damaging for people – with him already focusing on reducing reliefs for vape shops and betting establishments.
Healey could also raise taxes on cigarettes, vapes, unhealthy food and alcohol. These tax raises often incur little political cost but tend to raise trivial sums.
The four signs the UK’s stance towards Russia is escalating
Andy Burnham has faced down threats from the Kremlin over Britain’s increasing support for Ukraine by telling Vladimir Putin he “started the fire”.
Burnham says he won’t back down
The war of words broke out after Moscow warned that the UK sharing long-range missile blueprints with Kyiv would “add fuel to the fire” of the conflict.
During a visit to Kyiv on Monday, to mark the anniversary of Ukraine’s independence from the Soviet Union, Burnham insisted there would be no backing down from assistance to Kyiv.
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Tougher rhetoric from Burnham
While Sir Keir Starmer was a steadfast supporter of Ukraine, Burnham’s comments will be seen as more outspoken. They come as the perceived threat from Moscow has increased in the last few months.
With UK-made drones being used against Russia by Ukraine, Tobias Ellwood, a former defence minister, said Britain “should brace [itself] for grey zone retaliation. And for this we are woefully unprepared”.
Increased assistance
Britain has been contributing to Kyiv’s war effort since the start of the Russian invasion, but the revelation that UK-made drones were being used to strike Russia, as well as that Britain has shared blueprints for long-range missiles, reach a new scale of significance.
- Downing Street would not say whether this was a Starmer or Burnham policy, but a No 10 spokeswoman said the UK would continue to help arm Ukraine.
New battlefield data partnership
The latest support, announced on Monday evening, comes in the form of a new partnership between London and Kyiv on AI.
Under the deal, the UK will have access to Ukraine’s Avengers AI Labs database to develop tools for use on the battlefield.
Britain described the platform as a “goldmine of battlefield data”. In return, the UK will offer scientists and tech companies access to develop new battlefield tools.
Sorties by RAF planes
On Monday, an RAF “Rivet Joint” surveillance aircraft was spotted by military observers over Lithuania and northern Poland, near to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad.
While sorties such as these are not unusual, the timing of the mission – reported by the X account OSINT Defender – could suggest the UK is gearing up for potential retaliation from Moscow for its support for Ukraine.
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How much caffeine is in your favourite cup of high street coffee?
Coffees from high street chains can vary “wildly” in the amount of caffeine they contain, a new study by Which? has shown.
Costa tops caffeine leaderboards
The research found that a medium cappuccino from Costa contains 325mg of caffeine, almost three-and-a-half times that of the same drink at Starbucks, at 89mg.
This caffeine content is around the same amount as four cans of Red Bull. Costa also has the most caffeine in its espresso shots – 100mg per serving – and its flat whites (241mg).
Where the other chains stand
Greggs is second in the caffeine standings, with 235mg in its cappuccino and Caffe Nero third, with 221mg.
Starbucks serves the least amount of caffeine across all its drinks, but levels have increased in its espressos, cappuccinos and filter coffees over three years.
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The areas included in first wave of new housing fund
In an interview with The i Paper, Housing Secretary Angela Rayner has said the Government is “tilting” towards council and social housebuilding in a bid to reduce the number of homeless families in expensive temporary accommodation.
A surge in social housing
A total of £10bn worth of funding is going to councils and housing associations to build more than 70,000 homes across England, 60 per cent of which must be social housing, according to Rayner.
- The £10bn announced yesterday is set to be followed by approximately £21bn for council and social housing, which has not yet been allocated.
The areas receiving the funds
Of the £10bn, the following mayoral authorities will receive:
- An additional 33 “strategic partners” that will receive the rest of the money will be announced in due course, the Government said.
- The Mayor of London, Sir Sadiq Khan, will be given £6bn to spend.
‘Changing order of queue’ will not solve social housing issue
Reform UK has pledged to prioritise British-born workers under 35 when allocating social housing if the party enters government, but charities and experts have warned that “changing the order of the queue” would not solve the issue of social housing.
Plug-in solar panels go on sale this week – what to know
Plug-in solar panel kits are set to go on sale in the UK this Thursday, just in time for the end of the sunny weather.
Here’s where you’ll be able to buy them later this week – and what to look out for.
What solar panel can I buy?
UKSOL is the first company to produce a plug-in solar panel meeting new regulations.
Its one-panel solar kit is on sale now from £699 for collection on 27 August.
It is not expected to hit supermarket shelves before the end of the summer, though.
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Will they get cheaper?
There had been speculation that a solar panel could cost as little as £400, and there is hope that prices could come down if plug-in solar becomes popular here.
Retailers such as Lidl, Asda, B&Q, Currys, Screwfix and Wickes have all expressed interest in solar kits.
How will they work?
- UKSOL’s single panel system includes a kit to set up the panel.
- It is then monitored via an app.
- It must be set up in a garden – not on a balcony.
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What to watch out for
Making your money back
With an estimated saving of £85 a year you’ll have to wait a while.
Safety first
Get your wiring checked to avoid starting fires from power surges.
No storage
You have to be in to use the electricity, or it will go to waste.
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Millions of women to get at-home cervical screening tests
From Tuesday, women who have not attended their cervical screening appointments will get free at-home testing kits on the NHS.
The move has been described as a “gamechanger”.
The NHS aims to eliminate cervical cancer by 2040.
Women can request kits online
Eligible women aged between 30 and 65 will be sent invitations to order an at-home swab kit if they have not attended a smear test.
The kits contain a swab, to be used to collect a sample from the vagina, which can then be posted to a lab for testing.
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How will it work?
- Samples will be tested for high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV).
- If a test is positive, the patient will be invited to an appointment.
- 13 types of HPV are responsible for 99.7% cervical cancers.
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More science from The i Paper
Remember, nobody asked for this fight. Canada is the neighbour, top customer and co-signatory of a trade agreement that Trump negotiated in his first term. But Trump came back into office wanting “better” deals and slapped immediate and harsh tariffs on Canada, confident the country would settle with him.
Instead, he drove Canada into the arms of other nations. When Ottawa opened trade negotiations with China as a pressure-release valve for worsening economic relations with the United States, Trump ratcheted up his threats further, warning about a 100 per cent tax on all Canadian goods. The Canadians returned to the negotiating table, and last week, the President declared a deal done.
Then, in the final hours before a midnight deadline, Trump’s negotiators slipped in poison-pill language restricting Canada’s ability to strike trade agreements with other countries. The deal blew up. Ottawa baulked, and Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney called the terms unfair and uneconomic. Now, the two nations are arguably at the lowest point in their 150-year relationship.
“You’re at war when you get attacked,” Carney told his country the next morning. “We got attacked.”
Yet again Trump tried to bring his “business” logic into foreign policy and it failed catastrophically. His negotiators effectively injected a “non-compete” clause into the deal, barring Canada from dealing with anybody else. That’s the type of clause you write when you have assumed, as an article of faith, that the other party has nowhere else to go.
Trump’s settlement logic assumes his opponents have no alternatives. Once again, perhaps that was the case when he was building casinos. But countries do have alternatives. Iran has powerful patrons in Russia and China while Canada has an entire planet of buyers for its critical minerals, not to mention a Prime Minister who spent years arguing that “middle powers” like Canada must be willing to absorb pain rather than submit to economic coercion. Trump handed him the perfect opportunity to prove it.
Trump once explained to me and several other aides sitting in the Oval Office the lesson that he said had made him rich. In fact, he said it was the most important lesson he’d learned in business.
“When you threaten to sue somebody, they don’t do anything,” he told us. “They say ‘Pshhhh!'” He waved a hand in the air, dismissively. “And they keep doing what they want. But when you sue them, they go ‘Ooooh!’ and they settle. It’s as easy as that.”
Maybe it worked in the real estate business. But right now, in US foreign policy, the approach is leading to one catastrophe after another.
I’ve repeated that story many times because I think it’s the key to understanding the man and his perpetual (and perpetually reckless) quest for leverage. This week, we’re watching him “sue” two would-be defendants on the world stage — one an adversary, one a close friend — yet they’ve declined to settle.
Iran is the purest expression of the doctrine. The President did not slide into that war through a long chain of miscalculation. He filed the lawsuit, so to speak. He believed that sufficient opening damage would produce a favourable negotiation and, evidently, that a country on the receiving end of American firepower would do what a contractor in Queens does when the lawsuit papers land on his desk.
Tehran did not settle. So the President has done the only thing his doctrine allows for, which is to escalate further. His administration is now promising an “ECONOMIC D-DAY” and dispatching his Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to assemble a sweeping sanctions package. While this is presented as strategy, don’t be fooled. It’s the flailing last resort of an administration that realises its blunder, is running out of weapons, and can’t find a way out of a conflict that Trump said would last days or weeks.
There’s one more aspect to Trump’s “sue-settle” lawsuit logic that has failed to translate into his job as leader of the free world. You can drop a lawsuit. You can walk into court, file a voluntary dismissal, and the matter goes away. There’s no voluntary dismissal for a war, the bombing kind or a trade war. Trump has filed two cases he cannot win or withdraw from, and predictably, both situations are getting worse.
Also, unlike junk litigation, the consequences aren’t isolated to Trump and his defendants. Everyone suffers from this. Everything is getting more expensive. In the wake of the Iran war, oil prices have soared, thereby raising the cost of goods globally on anything that requires a boat, bus, or plane to get it to where it’s going. And now the fight with Canada risks disrupting global supply chains and sparking further inflationary pressure on goods.
Americans get the worst deal of all. Canada will begin redirecting critical minerals and energy to other buyers, which means that resources which used to be almost exclusively sold to the United States will now get sold to US competitors, effectively at a discount. Simply put, Americans will pay more while the Chinese get the chance to shop at the clearance sale.
I’ve thought about his approach to suing adversaries a great deal since. The President was telling us exactly how he intended to operate. What was ostensibly a tale about “winning” in property litigation was really a preview of how Trump planned to detonate international relations with friends and foes alike. He would drop bombs and shut down economies with the stroke of a pen.
It’s as easy as that.