After the explosive midterm elections in which voters firmly rejected the Republican agenda, the US government is in turmoil – and changes are coming that will affect the world.

The self-styled Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth is already under scrutiny over the Iran conflict, widely acknowledged as the most important factor in the Republicans’ midterm defeat, as well as the Trump administration’s assault on woke, with the defence chief launching a culture war over diversity in the military.

Now, as the Republicans attempt to regroup and redirect for the final two years of Donald Trump’s presidency, a political firestorm is tearing through the Pentagon, the largest US government department.

Speculation is growing that Hegseth, a former Fox News presenter and National Guard officer, could be impeached by Congress or moved to another post, with reports that Trump has been calling his advisers to consult on the cabinet member’s future. 

The President said he was not considering changing Pentagon leadership, but when asked about rumours that Hegseth could take a vacant Republican Senate seat in Tennessee, Trump said he would be “very popular” in that role. The President also shut down Hegseth’s plan to livestream a public execution last month.

Rachel Ellehuus, who held a number of roles at the Pentagon including acting deputy assistant secretary of defence for European and Nato policy, said that there had been “turbulence” in the Pentagon for a long time, with the mood among civilian and military staff “pretty negative” regarding the strategy and culture.

“I don’t think anybody in the United States wanted essentially the makings of a two-front war,” said Ellehuus, director-general at defence think-tank Rusi.

“I think they wanted to manage and end the conflict in Ukraine, and nobody ever wanted the war on Iran. Many in the Pentagon are still very keen on rebalancing to Asia and preparing for that long-term competition with China.”

Trump and Vice President JD Vance may now see Hegseth as “a convenient fall guy”, Ellehuus said, but she warned that “the fallout could be broader than just Hegseth”.

A British military source who has worked closely with the US suggested the Trump administration may try to move Hegseth out of the department before an impeachment attempt. This would “shield the organisation” from what might come out in an impeachment trial over the handling of the war on Iran – effectively “damage limitation”.

The insider said that many in the Pentagon were upset with how the US military had been handled and would have breathed a sigh of relief at the midterm results – but warned “it’s still going to be turbulent”.

Chris Servello – a retired naval officer who spent 10 years in the Pentagon and now runs public and government relations firm Provision Advisors – said that Trump is unlikely to take responsibility for the political fallout of the war, “so it’s just a question of who the blame lands on”. 

“It would be kind of unfair to throw all this on Secretary Hegseth,” said Servello, who co-hosts the maritime podcast. From a military perspective, the Pentagon did a “pretty decent job” of executing their commands in the war, he added. “It was more the diplomatic and the political side of the war that I think has been a bit bungled.”

“The President, when he was elected, campaigned on fixing the economy, making the middle class stronger, and keeping the United States out of the type of wars like we saw in Iraq and Afghanistan, and he’s kind of zero for three on all of those,” said Servello. “I think that’s why you saw the results that you saw.”

Servello predicted that other high-profile US military figures, like the Centcom commander or chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, could also come under heat for their part in the conflict.

It is not clear how Trump will extricate himself from Iran, with some indications he will escalate attacks to try to claim a decisive victory. But Servello noted: “The President and the Pentagon have been trying to end this war for a while. From the people that I’ve talked to that are pretty senior, they really did believe that this would be a weeks-long war, and they have been trying to find an off-ramp for a while.

“It may be that the election results make the type of off-ramp that they’re looking for a lot more immediate.”

may limit the Pentagon’s activity

Under Hegseth, the US defence budget has ballooned to a record $1trn (£750bn). But with Democrats about to take control of Congress and the public demanding a reduction in the cost of living, the Pentagon could face budget cuts, greater scrutiny and limitations on its activity.

The top Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee called this week for investigations into military action in Iran, the Caribbean and Latin America, as well as a smaller military budget and probes into Pentagon contracts. The new Congress seated in January will also be able to block attempts to move US troops out of Europe, restore sanctions on Russia suspended by the Trump administration and limit the use of AI in the military, Ellehuus suggested.

The Pentagon will also have to grapple with air defence shortages, having expended huge numbers of interceptor missiles to fight off Iranian attacks.

“It’s hard to know what direction they will go in, but there’s certainly a lot of rebuilding that has to be done again in terms of readiness and the reserves of capabilities that the Pentagon has,” Ellehuus said. “If the US is [aiming to] rebalance to Asia and really keep up with China and deter Russia, that’s not going to happen with the kit that they have left in the inventory.”

Culture wars could subside

Since entering the Pentagon, Hegseth has fired more than a dozen senior military officers, including the army chief, chief of naval operations and the air force’s vice-chief. He has blocked several female and black service members from promotion, having railed against so-called “wokeness” in the military, and pledged to “tear out” diversity and inclusion initiatives.

Ellehuus said that the Pentagon had traditionally been a “building where you had a lot of integration and people were promoted by, and valued for, their merit”.

“That culture has been undermined by Hegseth,” she said. “So, Democrats and Republicans alike are probably eager for him to go.”

Servello said the department had experienced a “change in culture” during Trump’s second administration. “It’s just as much of a challenge to change the way the Pentagon does business, in buying things, as it is to fire generals and admirals,” he said.

Hegseth and the current leadership have “accelerated the Pentagon’s buying power, they’re trying very hard to bring new people into the industrial base, and they’re trying to bring manufacturing back to the United States”.

“Then, at the same time, there’s a bit of the Pentagon culture war going on,” he added. “The balance of those two has been, I would say for those working in the Pentagon, it’s been tough for folks to reconcile.”

The military source said that without Hegseth, the Pentagon would be likely to “rein back the bullish nature” of the culture wars and “and dial back somewhat, but not all the way”. 

“Some things needed to change and they will keep those in place,” they said. “It had swung too far to the left, Hegseth took it all the way to the right, I would see it settling just to the right of centre.”