Vladimir Putin has spent four years trying, with varying degrees of success, to keep the consequences of his invasion of Ukraine away from normal Russians. But increasingly, his war is coming home.
Ukraine has ramped up its campaign of long-range strikes inside Russia, launching three times as many in July as it did in January. With Russians due to vote in parliamentary elections in just over a month, Kyiv is intensifying its attacks just as Putin most needs to demonstrate political grip.
While he can pretty much decide election results, he can’t control what happens between now and polling day. And even if Ukraine’s campaign of strikes won’t force a change in geopolitical course, they further erode the self-promoted but brittle veneer of domestic stability in the eyes of many Russians.
When will the heatwave end?
Yesterday was the hottest day of the year so far, with temperatures peaking at 38.1°C at Kew Gardens in London as the record-breaking summer continues.
This has been the UK’s hottest summer on record, and yesterday ranked as the UK’s fifth hottest day since records began in 1914.
The relentless heat has been coupled with a prolonged dry spell, leading to drought in many areas of the country, particularly severe in the south.
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Record-breaking heat
- The 37 days from 30 June to 5 August counted as the UK’s second-longest heatwave.
- This year, the UK has had at least one heatwave every month since May.
- The whole of Wales and more than 70 per cent of England is now in drought.
- Some parts of Hampshire, the Isle of Wight and West Sussex have not had rain for 63 days.
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Drought in pictures
When will it end?
Met Office chief forecaster Neil Armstrong said temperatures will see “a gradual return to average over the next few days”.
Conditions will feel less humid by Saturday, though it will still feel warm.
As for some desperately needed rain, the Met Office said some parts may see thunderstorms later today and into Saturday.
But the next meaningful rain for the driest areas in the south “could be towards the end of next week”.
What you need to know as Farage wins Clacton by-election
The Reform UK leader claimed an “overwhelming” victory – but refused to attend the count for safety reasons.
A party spokesperson said there had been a “credible threat” made against him.
Everything you need to know
How did Farage do?
Farage won 22,239 votes in the by-election, securing a majority of 63 per cent.
What about Binface?
The satirical candidate Count Binface received 9,455 votes (27 per cent).
Who was he facing?
There were a record-breaking 34 candidates on the ballot on Thursday, though none from the main parties.
What has the reaction been?
In a brief statement posted on X, the Reform leader said: “The result in Clacton speaks for itself.”
By contrast, the Liberal Democrats said Farage had come away from the election “looking daft”, as most people “who fight against a bin” would.
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Finance probe re-opens
- Part of Farage’s reasoning behind his abrupt resignation last month was the probe into his financial affairs.
- He was being investigated by the parliamentary standards committee over the alleged “failure to register an interest”.
- It concerns a £5m “gift” from a crypto-billionaire in 2024, which Farage did not declare.
- As he has been re-elected, the probe has reopened.
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This is a hollow victory for Farage. His biggest test is about to begin
Farage has defeated a bin but questions still remain over his and Reform’s finances.
How university tuition fees may hit £11,000 a year by 2030
Record numbers of students are set to go to university this year – but they face debts as high as £100,000 when they graduate.
What you need to know
- Students starting four-year courses this autumn are to see their fees rise by more than £800 in their final year.
- Tuition fees will reach £9,790 this autumn and £10,050 next year.
- Keir Starmer’s government said fees would increase with inflation.
- With these costs, added to the maximum maintenance loan for a student living without their parents in London, the total adds up to nearly £100,000.
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Mounting concerns around cost
Lewis Wilson, vice president at the National Union of Students, said the costs of attending university were “astronomical” and students were left with “mortgage-sized” debts.
“It’s a graduate tax for life, but it’s completely unfair,” he said.
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Could the Government backtrack?
Last month, Education Secretary Lucy Powell said the issue of student loans was “very much at the top of my in-tray” and described interest charges on Plan 2 loans as “egregious”.
Iain Mansfield, head of education at the Policy Exchange think-tank, said: “Given the increasing concern about the quality of universities, there is a real question about whether or not they’ll choose to go ahead with it. It feels like a fifty-fifty decision.”
Wildfires tear through West Midlands – the latest
This morning, residents in Stourbridge woke up to the burnt-out shells of neighbouring houses after a night of terrifying wildfires swept through the West Midlands yesterday.
What happened?
- A huge blaze near Stourbridge Golf Course set six homes on fire yesterday, with 100 firefighters battling the flames.
- The ambulance service said two people were taken to hospital for smoke inhalation.
- West Midlands chief fire officer Simon Tuhill said “the devastation is extensive”.
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Yesterday, fire crews also fought off a fire in Stoke-on-Trent where four homes were destroyed.
There were further fires in Warwickshire, Druids Heath and Kings Norton in Birmingham, Salford Priors and Pershore in Worcestershire. A woman was also seriously injured in another blaze in Castle Vale, Birmingham.
What has the reaction been?
There are now 11 major incidents declared across the UK, many in the West Midlands.
Phil Garrigan, chairman of the National Fire Chiefs Council, told the BBC: “It’s been a particularly difficult, busy period for the fire and rescue service, where we’ve been under significant pressure.”
Prime Minister Andy Burnham said: “Awful to see homes and communities hit by fires across the country tonight as the heatwave continues. My thoughts are with everyone affected.”
Deep strikes by Ukraine are growing in scale and complexity. In the last week alone, It hit two grain export facilities and a naval base on the Black Sea, oil refineries in western Russia, and petrochemical and other facilities in Siberia more than 1,500 miles east of Moscow. It has said that domestically produced weapons with greater payloads are on the way.
It also continues to pummel Wildberries warehouses, claiming they have been used for military purposes. Around 20 of the e-commerce giant’s sites have been hit over the last month.
Ukraine is systematically attacking Russia’s weapons production, oil and gas infrastructure, economic targets, military sites, supply routes, shipping, and air defences. These strikes seek to degrade its ability to supply and sustain its forces, while driving up costs in an already fragile economy.
The strikes are having a tangible impact on Russians, who are experiencing fuel shortages and higher prices. With much of Russian cargo transported by road, including from China, higher trucking costs are adding to wider pressures on inflation.
Putin’s personal approval rating is now at its lowest level since 2022, according to a Kremlin-affiliated pollster. Economic pessimism is at its highest in 20 years.
The significance of the strikes goes beyond the economic. The Wildberries attacks disrupted a company central to the convenience consumer culture that has become a staple of urban Russian life. Ukraine is thus attacking both the sinews of Putin’s war and also some of those social benefits that have underpinned his domestic bargain.
None of this is likely to affect the outcome of September’s election. Putin’s party is obviously going to win. Nor is the economic pain likely to translate into mass protests. But even tightly controlled, predetermined elections matter in a police state.
The upcoming elections are a way for the Kremlin to legitimise Putin as leader, to allow expressions of fealty to him from the elite, and to assess real public sentiment. Ukraine knows this, and is making Putin look weak just when he needs to appear strong.
Meanwhile, Ukrainian attacks are already forcing the Russian President’s hand. Stung by rising plumes of smoke, he has redeployed scarce air-defence systems to Moscow and St Petersburg. And while publicly he continues to display confidence in the progress of his war, it is notable that he has now visited six cities in less than three weeks.
This is perhaps an effort to boost his flagging poll ratings by showing a leader engaged in public issues. He has also posed in naval uniform in the Far East to bolster his credentials as commander-in-chief.
On Monday, the Kremlin moved swiftly to ban a small opposition party, Yabloko, to avoid it becoming a lightning rod for anti-war sentiment. Another opposition politician, Boris Nadezhdin, was threatened and fled into exile.
At the same time, Russia continues to crack down on domestic internet access and the country has escalated its own strikes against Ukrainian cities.
None of these measures address Russia’s underlying vulnerability to Ukrainian strikes and Ukraine continues to choose where and when to impose costs on Russia’s civilian population.
Prioritising expensive repairs to refineries or warehouses risks diverting scarce resources from elsewhere. But meekly accepting attacks risks Putin’s reputation in front of his elite and the wider Russian population. Both pose a significant political dilemma.
Ukrainian drones and missiles won’t force Putin to seek peace – nor change the results of the elections. But they do set the conditions within which they are held. Shortages, higher prices and evidence of physical destruction will continue to make life more difficult and expensive for Russians, and Putin ever more uncomfortable.
Russia’s President only needs to look at what is happening in the US, with Donald Trump struggling to appease voters angry about the impact of his war with Iran on their daily lives.
Putin may control September’s ballot, but he cannot control the daily reality Russians see around them. Beyond the physical damage of its attacks, it is political pain that Ukraine is seeking to inflict.