Russia has once again been hit behind enemy lines after a huge Ukrainian drone and missile operation struck a major fuel production facility in the early hours of Saturday.
The Kamensky chemical plant in Russia’s Rostov region in the south was hit, according to the general staff of the armed forces of Ukraine on Telegram.
The facility produces solid rocket propellant which is essential for several Russian weapons used in the war on Ukraine.
Overnight, Ukraine also targeted other energy facilities, including the Bashneft refineries in Ufa, setting one of the reforming units on fire, according to .
On Friday, the G20 foreign ministers’ family photo was cancelled on account of Russian attacks on Ukraine, with European diplomats including Ed Miliband refusing to engage with Russia’s foreign minister, Sergei Lavrov.
Discussion of potential negotiations between Russia and Ukraine appears to be back on the table, with trilateral talks between the US, Russia and Ukraine are set to resume in Abu Dhabi next month, in the hopes the meeting could kick-start stalled peace talks between the warring nations.
Volodymyr Zelensky also met Turkey’s President, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, on Friday to hold “important talks”, partly about security in the Black Sea, where Russian and Ukrainian attacks have intensified in recent months.
What is the impact of Saturday’s attacks?
A complex system of drones and navy Neptune missiles was launched against Kamensky, the Ukrainian military said.
It suggested the facility produced “solid rocket fuel for the Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S MLRS ammunition, as well as for a number of missile systems and aircraft weapons”.
The stated aim of the strike was to “reduce the ability of the Russian army to shell Ukrainian settlements with multiple launch rocket systems”.
Ukrainian general staff also said it had hit four army warehouses in the Donetsk region in synchronised strikes overnight.
Taken together with the hit on Bashneft, it makes it clear that Ukraine is continuing to target Russian energy production facilities despite warnings from Washington.
It also comes after Ukriane resumed its refinery attacks with a hit on the Novokuibyshevsk refinery in the Samara region on Friday after a two-week long pause.
Before that, Ukraine had not hit any Russian refineries since 15 October amid significant pressure from the Trump administration to comply with a suggested energy ceasefire.
Prospect of fuel shortages in Russia
Scott Lucas, professor of international politics at University College Dublin, said the strikes will put pressure on Russian energy capacity which could affect its war effort.
“The effect of that, of course, is going to be to put a squeeze back on the Russians in terms of their capacity, both for their domestic market and also for support of the invasion,” he said.
Lucas added the blow comes just days after Russia reopened the flow of fuel to regions where there had been “severe shortages” this year.
He said: “Just earlier this week, the Russians had lifted restrictions on fuel sales in 15 regions, including Crimea, the occupied area where they had severe shortages this summer.
“So there was some easing of the fuel situation, which accompanied [Donald] Trump’s announcement that he was going to purchase fuel from Russia.”
In fact, renewed Ukrainian attacks over the past few weeks have contributed to a waning Russian economy, Lucas said.
“Overall, we’re back to highlight the fact that Russia has severe constraints in terms of its economic situation, which are accentuated by the Ukrainian counterattacks,” he added.
What this means for the US’s diesel deal
Earlier this month, Trump agreed to a deal with Vladimir Putin that will allow Russia to “immediately release” diesel into the US and global markets.
The move led to accusations that Trump is now helping to fund Putin’s war against Ukraine. Zelensky later criticised the US over the deal, describing it as a “weak decision”.
The US Department of Treasury issued a temporary licence to enable Russian diesel to flow to global markets through April 2027.
This allows Russia to deliver the more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel Trump said would be arrive immediately, as well as the further 500,000 tonnes to come in November.
But on Saturday, Russia announced it would extend its export ban on diesel through to the end of January 2027, indicating it is worried about domestic supply.
Lucas pointed out that one of the exceptions to this rule would be “any diesel that they could send across to the US as they continue to try to get Trump to support them to ally with them, in effect, in the invasion against Ukraine”.
Time will tell, he said, what the future attitude of the Trump administration will be, given widespread rifts in his government about the approach to Ukraine and the implications of siding with Russia over diesel, especially as the midterms approach next week.