Ukraine is fighting to bring the war home to Russians ahead of an “exceptionally grim” winter, analysts say, as Kyiv launched its largest ever attack on the Moscow region on Sunday morning.

The Russian capital’s mayor, Sergei Sobyanin, said that more than 1,600 drones had been intercepted and shot down in the “massive” attack, 450 of them aimed at Moscow. At least two people were killed and 20 injured.

A major oil refinery in the city was also damaged during the strike, despite Donald Trump claiming last Monday that Ukraine and Russia had agreed not to target each other’s energy infrastructure.

Keir Giles, associate fellow with the Russia and Eurasia programme at Chatham House, said the timing of the attack to coincide with the third and final day of Russia’s tightly-controlled parliamentary elections was intended to “bring home to Russians the fact that they are at war and that this has consequences”.

He called this an opportune moment for “making the point that Ukraine’s capabilities are increasing and the damage to Russia is also increasing”.

Natia Seskuria, head of the Russia, Eurasia and Black Sea security programme at the Royal United Services Institute (Rusi), said the scale of the attack on Moscow demonstrates “Kyiv’s growing ability and confidence to conduct deep-strike attacks inside Russia, imposing costs well beyond the front line, stretching Russian air defences, and threatening critical infrastructure that is particularly important to Russia’s war economy”.

Seskuria told The i Paper that Ukraine was seeking to “undermine a key Kremlin narrative that they can insulate the wider population from the war”.

“Russia is likely to respond with further ballistic missile, and drone strikes against Ukrainian civilian and energy infrastructure,” she said. This will make “the coming winter particularly challenging for Ukraine, especially given its limited air-defence capabilities”.

Alexander De Croo, head of the UN Development Programme, told the BBC this winter was going to be the “toughest” since the war began. Temperatures in Ukraine can plummet to -20°C during the coldest months.

Giles said the last few months had made clear just how deadly the season will be. “So there is no excuse for anybody to be surprised if it does turn out to be exceptionally grim in Ukraine this winter as a result of Russia’s campaign to target the most vulnerable in Ukrainian society as a means to destroying the country as a whole.”

Russia has been targeting Ukraine’s energy networks and other civilian infrastructure almost daily “to make life unbearable in Ukraine and potentially unsustainable if they mount the scale of campaign against energy and heating infrastructure over the winter that is expected”, added Giles.

In recent months, both Russia and Ukraine have been stepping up their capabilities to strike deep behind enemy lines.

Kyiv has been manufacturing thousands of low-cost combat drones every month. Meanwhile, Moscow has started to use faster, jet-powered drones that are harder to intercept.

The result of the first wartime elections is likely to be presented by Vladimir Putin as evidence of public backing for his policies and the war. There is little doubt that the ruling United Russia party will win a majority of seats in the 450-seat State Duma, with the only anti-war party barred from the ballot.

But in reality, public support for the war is shifting as Russians start to feel the effects more sharply with an uptick in air strikes, fuel shortages, and economic concerns.

The Kapotnya refinery, which provides approximately 40 per cent of the fuel supply for Moscow, had already been struck multiple times over the summer. The latest attack ignited a large fire at the facility. A logistics warehouse in Sofyino was also hit, with a fire breaking out.

The war, now in its fifth year, is showing no sign of ending soon. De Croo said that the UN were “very, very worried… about what this winter could become”. He was especially concerned by Russia’s “very systematic” targeting of civilian and energy infrastructure.

Ukraine’s President, Volodymyr Zelensky, posted on X confirming Sunday’s drone strike, saying it had a “very significant impact” on one of Russia’s key oil industry facilities and logistics facility. “These are billions of dollars that sustain the war machine.”

He added: “Steps toward de-escalation are on the table – in energy and food security. What is needed is political will.”

Peace talks have faltered since early 2026, and recent visits by US special envos Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, Trump’s son-in law, to Russia and Ukraine seems to have failed to re-invigorate them.

Last week the European Commission approved an additional €6.1bn £5.2bn to support Ukraine’s air and missile defence, as well as drones and electronic warfare.

“There’s no doubt that the challenge is understood,” Giles says. “The need for greater support for Ukraine, even just to keep people alive, regardless of the moral imperative to defend it against Russia, is urgent.”

Despite Ukrainian forces making gains on the front lines, he added, it is the “diplomatic and strategic and economic and human factors way behind the lines that are going to determine how [the war] ends”.