First it was drought. Now we’re braced for storms and heavy rainfall.
The El Nino phenomenon is set to bring more extreme weather to the UK this autumn and winter, the Met Office has warned.
Britain has endured a scorching summer, with new record temperatures smashed across the country.
A sixth heatwave could also be in the cards before the end of the summer.
El Nino happens every three to seven years when worldwide temperatures are pushed up by the weather system, which shifts ocean winds.
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It could ramp up sea temperatures in the tropical eastern Pacific by 0.5°C above the long-term average, causing a knock-on effect on global rainfall and average temperatures.
The natural warming of sea temperatures is forecast to reach more than 3°C in the coming months, making this year’s weather front ‘the largest since the 19th century,’ according to the Met Office forecasters.
It creates a heightened risk of drought in the tropics, southern Africa and north-east Australia, while north-western Europe – including the UK – is likely to experience wetter and stormier conditions in the coming autumn and early winter, the forecaster said.
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‘We should be clear that this is an unprecedented event,’ Professor Adam Scaife, Met Office’s head of long range forecasting said.
‘I have never seen an El Nino signal this intense in our forecasts.’
He added: ‘A typical El Nino leads to an equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature rise of between one to 2°C, with 2°C being a really big event.
‘This implies that if the forecast is accurate – and other forecast systems show similar extreme values – then 2026 will far exceed our recent experience of El Nino and its worldwide climate influences.’
2027 could be warmest on record
If 2026 has felt sweltering so far, 2027 could top that as it is set to become the warmest year on record.
Most of England and Wales are in drought after the heatwave summer water resources have been dwindling, hitting reservoirs, wildlife, crops and the emergency services tackling back-to-back wildfires.
The situation is so dire it led to Prime Minister Andy Burnham calling an emergency Cobra meeting last week.
He said: ‘We might be in for a wet autumn and winter straight after this, because of El Nino and some of the issues there, which was reported to Cobra.’
Dr Nick Dunstone, the Met Office science fellow, said: ‘During large El Nino events significantly more heat is released from the ocean to the atmosphere leading to an increase in global average temperature, particularly in the calendar year following the winter peak of the El Nino.
‘Hence, 2027 is very likely to replace 2024 as the warmest year on record and be another year to temporarily exceed plus 1.5°C above the pre-industrial period.’
The extreme weather pattern also comes with heavy rainfall risking flooding, which parts of the country have already gotten a taste of this season.
Parts of Lancashire recorded their wettest conditions in the last 24 hours on Thursday night as 52.5mm of rain fell in Morecambe – around a third of the region’s rainfall total that usually lands between June 1 and August 18.
Pevensey Bay in East Sussex was also swept by heavy rain, with 32mm recorded over the last 24 hours, according to the Environment Agency.
The sudden heavy rainfall this week also sparked fears of flash flooding as the water has been hitting parched, dry, hard ground.
And despite the sudden wet conditions, it could take months of steady rainfall for the drought to clear.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at webnews@metro.co.uk.
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