Much has been made of the Burnham bounce – the rapid improvement in the fortunes of the Labour Party after Andy Burnham took over from Sir Keir Starmer.
Less noticed has been the slow rise of Kemi Badenoch – not a bounce so much as a baby step towards re-establishing the Conservatives as a credible party electoral force.
Which is exactly as Tory strategists like it. Badenoch has been in control of the party for just shy of two years. For much of that time they have trailed in third place in the polls behind Reform UK, after their historic drubbing at the 2024 general election.
Why water firms could be due customers £240m by 2030
Poor supplier performance means households are set to see £240m taken off their water bills by 2030, regulator Ofwat has announced.
Water firms not hitting targets
The water watchdog said it was looking at imposing penalties on a number of firms across the sector for not meeting environmental and customer service targets in the 2025-26 financial year.
- A total of £240m could be returned through customers’ bills by 2029-30, with £107m to be returned in 2027-28.
Why the reduction is unlikely to impact your wallet
However, cuts to bills will likely be offset for many customers by recent plans announced by Ofwat to permit water firms to raise annual tariffs by an extra £3.4bn.
This is in addition to the 36 per cent rise agreed over the five years to 2030.
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Who could see the biggest reductions?
Customers of Yorkshire Water could see £27 taken off their bills for under-performance on average, with a £7 reduction for those at Thames Water, according to Ofwat.
Meanwhile, some firms will see outperformance payments, such as Severn Trent and Northumbrian Water.
Ofwat stressed that changes to bills are “affected by a range of factors and the effect will vary by company and customer type”. It will make its on the payments by 15 December, taking effect on next year.
Burnham’s water plans
- Last month, plans were revealed for laws to pave the way for public ownership of water companies.
- It has sparked conversation about a possible temporary nationalisation of debt-ridden Thames Water.
- Andy Burnham has previously warned customers “cannot be treated as a blank cheque” after Ofwat announced plans in August to allow additional bill increases.
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Finally, sewage-dumping water bosses to lose their bonuses
The move marks a new win for The i Paper’s Save Britain’s Rivers campaign, which has been calling for tougher measures to restrict bonuses at underperforming water firms.
Russell Brand ‘concerned’ as trial prosecution begins
Russell Brand said he is feeling “concerned” as prosecutors begin presenting their case against him in his trial on rape and sexual assault charges.
What is Brand accused of?
The 51-year-old entertainer faces three allegations of rape, three counts of sexual assault and one allegation of indecent assault, after being accused by six women.
Previous court hearings have been told how Brand, who denies all charges, is accused of raping a woman in a hotel room at a Labour Party conference in Bournemouth.
He also allegedly grabbed a TV worker’s breasts and forced her into a sex act in a toilet and is said to have kissed and groped a radio station worker.
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More detail
- The accusations against Brand date from 1999 to 2009.
- A jury was selected at Southwark Crown Court on Monday and Tuesday, before prosecutor Riel Karmy-Jones KC opened the prosecution’s case on Wednesday.
- Arriving at court, Brand said: “Today I feel blessed. I feel, of course, concerned but hopeful that this process will lead to good outcomes for everybody involved.”
- Brand’s wife, Laura Gallacher, has supported him at court this week as the case continues.
What has been said in court
The court heard on Wednesday that Brand is “ruthless, calculated and manipulative”, a “sexual predator” according to the prosecution, who raped and groped women to satisfy his “huge sexual appetite”.
He was “obsessed” with sex and treated women as a “means to an end,” the court was told. Brand was described as “child-like in his expectation that his every desire should be met”.
“Regardless of who they were and what they said or did, the defendant was not deterred… He could be nice when he wanted to be – funny, undoubtedly; charming, likeable even… But then demanding, entitled, a flirt with a huge sexual appetite… Uppermost in his mind was his insatiable desire to get what he wanted”
prosecutor Riel Karmy-Jones KC
A man’s body has been recovered, with two others still unaccounted for, after a fishing vessel went missing off the Outer Hebrides.
Everything we know so far
HM Coastguard have said they were made aware of the missing ship, which was sailing off Port Ness on the Isle of Lewis, at around 9.20pm on Tuesday.
- Police Scotland were notified at about 11.35pm. The force said three men were aboard.
- The body of one man has been recovered. The man’s family have been made aware and are being supported by officers.
Search under way
A Coastguard aeroplane, two helicopters, six rescue teams, two RNLI lifeboats, a local vessel and Police Scotland are involved in the search, which is being carried out amid a yellow weather warning for high winds in the region.
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Pope Leo diagnosed with lung cancer after surgery
Pope Leo XIV has been diagnosed with cancer following a “successful” operation to remove the lower lobe of his right lung, the Vatican has announced.
A common type of lung cancer
Doctors confirmed the diagnosis of lung adenocarcinoma, a common type of lung cancer, after pre-planned surgery at Rome’s Gemelli Hospital. Dr Luigi Carbone and Professor Stefano Margaritora said cancer had been suspected by pre-operative tests.
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What else do we know?
- The surgery lasted around 90 minutes and had no complications.
- Pope Leo had a “peaceful night” in hospital, where he is expected to remain for about a week.
- The 71-year-old pontiff cancelled all public events until 20 October to give him time to recover.
- It is understood that King Charles is writing privately to the Pope to pass on his well-wishes.
Hope for quick recovery
- The Vatican did not give more details of the operation, but Margaritora is an expert in robotic surgical techniques and Video-Assisted Thoracic Surgery (Vats).
- Using small incisions by endoscopic instruments equipped with a high-definition camera, Vats reduces surgical trauma and can result in faster recovery.
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Reactions from religious leaders and supporters
Archbishop Richard Moth, leader of the Catholics in England and Wales, said: “I have sent a message on behalf of all in the Catholic Church in England and Wales, assuring him [the Pope] of our prayers.”
- Large crowds gathered outside the hospital to wait for the Pope before his surgery. One well-wisher, Carla, told the BBC she was “taken aback” by the news, adding: “It turns out he’s vulnerable too.”
New dinosaur species discovered from ‘overlooked’ fossil
A new species of dinosaur has been identified from an “overlooked” fossil which was found on the Isle of Wight more than 100 years ago, researchers have said.
The history of the fossil
The fossil, which was a piece of the back of a skull, was originally found at the foot of a cliff on the south-west coast of the Isle of Wight by amateur palaeontologist Reginald Walter Tooley. It was procured by the Natural History Museum in 1924.
Dr Cassius Morrison of University College London said it was a “real mystery” why the fossil had been overlooked.
A megaraptoran
The new dinosaur, named Invictibellatrix amberina (with the former meaning “unconquered female warrior”), has and is about the size of a large tiger.
It is part of a group of agile, two-legged carnivores called . These were closely related to tyrannosaurus but had more slender heads and used their claws to attack prey rather than their jaws.
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A mysterious species
- Megaraptors are seen as the most mysterious of the large carnivorous dinosaurs, with few fossils found.
- Until this discovery, no megaraptorans had been found in Europe.
- Researchers suggest invictibellatrix would have been three to four meters long and just over a metre and a half tall.
- They also speculate it would likely have had feathers and 10-20cm long claws.
- Its diet is thought to have consisted of small dinosaurs, lizards and mammals.
Rules, London’s oldest restaurant, given to National Trust
The home of Rules, London’s oldest restaurant which has been there since 1798, has been donated to the National Trust.
The charity said the donation of the £11m site by J-P Mayhew, its owner of 40 years, would secure the future of a building where “kings dined and writers and politicians plotted”.
The freehold acquisition included visitor books, menus, caricatures, photographs, stained glass and signs. Annual rent from the restaurant business will also go into conservation work.
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Famous diners
Rules is no stranger to celebrity, having welcomed figures from and – who would rendezvous with his mistresses there – to and over the past two centuries.
The restaurant, located at 34-35 Maiden Lane in Covent Garden, central London, has outlasted empires and overcome challenges including the Blitz during the Second World War as well as plans for a dual carriageway.
A long future ahead
This place is an outstanding piece of living history… it has defied the odds to be standing here today, doors still open and treacle sponge still on the menu. Mr Mayhew’s extraordinary generosity, and the care he has poured into Rules over many decades, mean this beloved place has a future measured not in years but generations.
Hilary McGrady, director-general of the National Trust
Following months during which Nigel Farage’s party appeared to occupy much of the political space the Tories once claimed, her party has struggled to convince voters that it still has something meaningful to say.
Tories overtake Reform in polls
Now the mood inside the party has begun to change. An organisation that spent much of the last parliament at war with itself now looks more united, more disciplined and more confident in its message. But unity is not the same as momentum, and until this month there was little evidence that the change was registering with the public.
Two post-conference polls have given Badenoch her first serious opening. Neither shows a dramatic surge. Instead, they suggest a modest improvement of the kind the leadership believes can provide the foundation for a longer recovery.
A YouGov poll for and Sky News put the Conservatives on 23 per cent, up three points and at their highest level on YouGov’s tracker since January last year and, crucially, in second place. Labour stood on 24 per cent and Reform on 21, leaving the Tories just one point behind Labour and two ahead of Farage’s party.
More in Common subsequently put the Conservatives on 24 per cent, ahead of Reform on 21 but still behind Labour on 28 – again second place for the Tories, after more than 18 months in third.
Only days earlier, polling expert Sir John Curtice had told a fringe event at the Conservative conference that the party had made little progress and remained broadly where it was after the general election.
Changing the political dynamic
His assessment and the new figures are less contradictory than they might appear. Against the scale of the 2024 defeat, the Tories have barely recovered. Against the more immediate target set by its leadership, however, it may be beginning to make headway.
That distinction goes to the heart of Badenoch’s strategy. The first objective is not a spectacular leap in support, but to establish a consistent lead over Reform – enough to begin changing the political dynamic on the right.
The argument for incremental progress is that small gains, if sustained, can gradually change how voters, commentators and rival parties perceive the contest. A narrow lead becomes evidence that the Conservatives are recovering; that perception, in turn, may help them attract voters who want a credible alternative to Labour.
The larger ambition is to re-establish the Tories as the main party of opposition and the government-in-waiting. Overtaking Reform is the first step towards that goal. Without it, the Conservatives struggle to claim that they are once again the natural home for voters seeking a change of government. With it, they can at least begin to make the case.
But that requires more than winning back voters who have defected to Farage.
‘We can’t kill them by trying to kill them’
Badenoch must also rebuild the coalition that once made the Conservatives electorally dominant, including centrist and economically successful voters who have moved towards Labour or the Liberal Democrats.
This is a different proposition from Boris Johnson’s 2019 coalition, which relied heavily on working-class Brexit voters in the “Red Wall”.
Instead it is a move towards a group dubbed the “Waitrose women” – relatively affluent, socially liberal, centre-right women who have traditionally supported the Tories but have become increasingly disillusioned with them, and so been tempted by Labour and the Lib Dems.
It follows a long tradition in politics of profiling stereotypical swing voters – such as Tony Blair’s “Mondeo Man” – a man from a Labour background who now had his own home and business – and Boris Johnson’s “Workington Man” – a 45-year old white, male, Leave voter.
The current approach has more in common with David Cameron’s pitch to aspirational voters in 2015: a renewed emphasis on family finances, economic opportunity and the interests of people who feel that working hard should leave them better off.
The Tories’ childcare announcement fits that strategy. Under the current rules in England, families can lose access to certain childcare support when either parent earns more than £100,000 a year.
Removing that cliff edge is aimed at professional working families who can find themselves worse off when one parent crosses the threshold.
It is a targeted policy rather than a grand gesture. It will not transform the polls on its own, but it speaks directly to a group the Conservatives need to win back. The hope is that a series of such offers can gradually rebuild trust with this cohort of voters.
The same incremental thinking informs the Conservatives’ approach to Reform. There is little appetite among some Tory strategists for an all-out assault on Farage, not least because the party’s own voters have little taste for blue-on-blue warfare.
“We can’t kill them by trying to kill them,” said one senior Tory source. “Our voters don’t like it.”
Badenoch’s approval boost
A frontal attack might generate headlines, but it could also alienate voters the Conservatives hope to win back and reinforce Farage’s claim to be the insurgent alternative to an established political class.
The more intriguing question is whether Badenoch herself is turning a corner. More in Common’s post-conference research reportedly put her net approval rating at +5, her highest with the pollster since she became leader.
Her personal profile appears to be running ahead of that of much of her front bench. As has highlighted, there is a substantial gulf in public recognition between the Tory leader and some of her colleagues, including shadow Chancellor Andrew Griffith. That is both an advantage and a problem.
Badenoch has become the party’s most recognisable face, but she cannot rebuild its credibility alone.
She appeared conscious of the challenge at conference. In her keynote speech, she sought to showcase the talent around her, praising her Shadow Cabinet and highlighting a new generation of Conservatives, including Harriet Cross, Katie Lam and Rebecca Paul.
The message was that the party has depth beyond its leader: a team with ideas and the capacity to govern, rather than a one-woman show.
Shadow Education Secretary Laura Trott has likened Badenoch’s growing public profile to that of Madonna, suggesting that she is becoming “Madonna-level” – increasingly recognised simply as Kemi.
It is a memorable comparison, capturing the kind of name recognition most politicians can only dream of. But Madonna is a solo act; a political party cannot be.