Chancellor John Healey will deliver his first Budget in just over three weeks, with property taxes, housing support and help for first-time buyers all thought to be in play.
But he faces a difficult balancing act between delivering Burnham’s agenda and finding the money to pay for them, while sticking to the strict fiscal rules he inherited from former chancellor Rachel Reeves. These require day-to-day spending to be covered by tax revenue and debt to be falling as a share of the economy.
The picture has become more difficult amid warnings that the Chancellor’s fiscal headroom could fall from the forecasted £23.6bn to roughly £14bn following a surge in the cost of government borrowing, triggered by the US-Iran war.
What to remember when asking AI about your pension savings
While AI can be a “great tool” for research, pension savers have been warned they could lose money if they rely on chatbots to answer financial questions.
Here’s what you should remember when asking AI about your nest egg…
Leaving out crucial details
UK-based online provider PensionBee has warned that an AI bot’s answers to common questions about retirement savings could leave out crucial details.
It found issues around questions about significant life events, and those enquiries where the user’s location was unclear.
AI also might not recognise that the person asking the question may be in vulnerable circumstances, PensionBee said.
An answer can contain correct information and still leave you with the wrong impression because something important is missing. This is one of the biggest risks with using AI for financial questions. Consumers need to look beyond whether an answer sounds right and check whether it gives them the full picture before acting.
Becky O’Connor, head of at PensionBee
Free AI advice may be wrong
Someone in a genuinely difficult financial situation may turn to an AI chatbot because they don’t want or can’t afford to pay for advice, says Becky O’Connor
She added that free AI advice was “exactly when recognising the wider circumstances matters most”, and people should understand a clear, confident answer from a chatbot might still be incomplete or wrong.
If you want AI advice:
- That includes age, pension type, and whether you are going through a major life event.
- Do not share personal details, such as passwords and account numbers, with AI.
- Ask neutral questions and verify sources and information before acting.
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What we know about US bombers withdrawal from RAF Fairford
The United States has withdrawn all of its
B-1, B-2 and B-52 bombers from RAF Fairford amid fresh security concerns.
Downing Street has insisted the airbase is safe, following the arrest of and bailing of six individuals over the past week in connection with a suspected terror plot.
Warplanes sent back to US
According to and , the warplanes were removed due to a new potential threat against the airbase in Gloucestershire.
At least three of the bombers had returned to the US, landing in South Dakota, by Sunday, the reported.
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New Fairford threats?
One US official, speaking anonymously to the , said the new threats were part of the same warnings from three weeks ago, but that more specific details had emerged in the past 24 hours.
The report claimed some planes left so urgently that refuelling aircraft were still being arranged to support the journeys. The UK Ministry of Defence has not commented.
PM: Iran may be responsible
- It follows the five arrests just over a week ago, after three suspicious vans were spotted near the base.
- Andy Burnham has said there were “strong indications” that Iran played a part in that incident.
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Senior Counter Terrorism Policing (CTP)
co-ordinator Vicki Evans said a “hugely complex” investigation into the suspected terror plot was under way.
- On Saturday, CTP said a sixth man arrested in connection with events at RAF Fairford had been released on bail.
- The 25-year-old, a dual UK-Iranian national, was held on suspicion of preparation of terrorist acts under Section 5 of the Terrorism Act 2006.
- Five British nationals, all in their mid-20s, were arrested on suspicion of explosives offences and terrorism and then bailed.
Speculation over new strikes
The departure of the bombers has renewed speculation the US could begin fresh strikes on Iran after next month’s midterm elections. US forces have used Fairford as a base for Middle East operations and had been granted permission to launch “defensive” strikes on Iran from there. But Fairford-based bombers would have been unable to take part in new, aggressive measures.
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Pentagon statement
We can acknowledge now that all US bombers that were deployed to RAF have redeployed to their home stations in the United States. The airmen that operate America’s bomber force… remain ready to deliver precision global strike capabilities – including through operations that launch and recover from the continental United States – anywhere, anytime.
A Pentagon official
Why Israel has banned Greens leader Polanski
Israel’s foreign ministry has banned Green Party leader Zack Polanski from entering the country after a motion on the definition of Zionism was adopted by the Greens at the party’s conference over the weekend.
What does the motion say?
The motion defines Zionism as supporting “an ethnonationalist Jewish state”.
A democratic Palestine
It backs a “single democratic Palestinian state in all of historic Palestine”.
It has divided senior party figures, with deputy leader Rachel Millward calling the wording “problematic”.
Zionism motion is a ‘stain’ on UK history, says Israel
Polanski did not take part in the vote at the Greens’ conference in Brighton on Sunday, but members endorsed the policy motion by 1,022 votes to 813.
Israel’s foreign ministry described it as a “clear antisemitic text” and “a stain on the history of the United Kingdom”.
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Polanski calls for changes to motion
Asked about the motion on Friday, Polanski told the BBC: “If your Zionism is the displacement of the Palestinian people then that is clearly racist, and I say that as a Jewish leader of a British political party.”
Polanski did not vote in the debate, as
he left the Greens’ conference early to campaign for a seat in this week’s Holborn and St Pancras by-election.
However, the Green Party leader called for some amendments to the motion.
Amendments rejected
- Polanski said he wanted to see reference to a single Palestinian state changed, arguing that the UK should not be “deciding what the future settlement looks like”.
- He also wanted an amendment to specify that it should not be used
to discipline Jewish members attending synagogues that consider themselves Zionist. - However, both amendments were rejected by Green members.
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Jewish groups speak out
Zionism is anti-racism, creating a refuge for Jews in their ancient homeland after millennia of persecution outside it. Branding most British Jews and Jewish institutions ‘racist’ stokes
Board of Deputies of British Jews and
anti-Jewish hatred.
the Jewish Leadership Council
Watch more from The i Paper
Here are some of the policies that could be on the table that would impact homeowners, renters and landlords.
For homeowners
The mansion tax – officially the high value council tax surcharge – was announced by Reeves at last year’s Budget.
From April 2028, homes in England worth more than £2m will pay between £2,500 and £7,500 a year.
However, reported last month that Healey is considering lowering the threshold to £1.5m, with two Government sources describing it as a “live discussion” in the Treasury.
Lowering the threshold would lift the number of homes forecast to pay from 134,000 to 271,000 on current values, The i Paper reported. Around half would be in London.
All but one of the 20 constituencies that would be most affected are in London, according to the estate agent Hamptons, and 15 of them are held by Labour.
The move has sparked backlash from many in the capital, with four London councils – Wandsworth, Kensington and Chelsea, Westminster and Richmond – having written to Healey opposing the tax.
“It is simply wrong to assume that everyone living in these homes is wealthy,” they said.
One thing that is unlikely to be changing for homeowners, however, is stamp duty and council tax.
Pressure has been growing on Burnham from a group of Labour MPs – mainly based in the north of England – to replace the two levies with an annual property tax based on the home’s value.
Jonathan Brash, the MP for Hartlepool, described council tax as an “injustice built into a system that has not properly updated its valuations for 35 years”.
However, Burnham has previously ruled out changing stamp duty and council tax at the Budget, telling journalists in July that “that won’t be happening”.
For landlords
Landlords who sell a rental property at a profit pay capital gains tax (CGT) on the gain.
Gains on residential property are taxed at 18 per cent for basic-rate taxpayers and 24 per cent for higher and additional-rate taxpayers, after a tax-free allowance of £3,000 this year.
However, some Labour backbenchers are pushing to change these rates. Brian Leishman, the MP for Alloa and Grangemouth, is among those urging the Government to “equalise capital gains tax to match income tax”.
That would mean landlords in the higher and additional-rate bands paying more on any profit from a sale, with the additional-rate band rising from 24 to 45 per cent.
However, not all Labour MPs agree. A backbencher who described themself as a “fiscal hawk” told The i Paper that the Government must “not be doing anything that spooks the market and leads to higher borrowing costs”, naming CGT among the measures that could do so.
Higher costs are already coming for landlords, regardless of what the Budget brings.
From April 2027, income tax on rental profits will rise by two percentage points, taking the rates to 22, 42 and 47 per cent.
Income tax thresholds are also frozen until 2031. As rents and incomes rise, more landlords will be pulled into higher bands without any change in the rates, a process known as fiscal drag.
Some basic-rate landlords could therefore end up paying the 42 per cent rate on their rental profits.
New rules also came into force in April 2026 requiring landlords earning over £50,000 a year to keep digital records and give quarterly updates to HMRC, with the threshold due to fall to £30,000 in April 2027.
For renters
For renters hoping to buy, Burnham announced Your First Home in late September, for first-time buyers in England purchasing new-build properties.
Buyers would need a 2.5 per cent deposit and a government-backed equity loan worth 20 per cent of the price, reported. Details of the income and price caps have not yet been published.
On the average first-time buyer asking price of £225,199, according to Rightmove, the deposit would be £5,630 rather than the £11,260 required for a standard 5 per cent deposit.
The Government has said further details will follow at the Budget, with registration due to open by the end of 2026.
But an issue for low-income renters is local housing allowance (LHA), which caps the housing support paid to private renters on universal credit or housing benefit. This has been frozen since April 2024.
The Resolution Foundation said in a report in September that a low-income family renting a typical two-bedroom home in England faces an average shortfall of £158 a month.
It said the gap between rents and the allowance is set to hit a record high this October. The gap is widest in London, reaching £324 a month in Inner East London.
The think-tank wants the Government to relink the allowance to local rents, at a cost of £2bn a year by 2029-30.
There has not been any indication that the Chancellor is considering this, but it may be an option he could consider to help households with the cost of living.