Russia and Ukraine traded fresh strikes on key ports over Wednesday evening, the latest in a series of attacks designed to degrade both sides’ ability to ship key exports via the Black Sea.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said Kyiv had launched rockets, jets and naval drones in a “unique operation” which struck the Russian port of Novorossiysk.

Ukraine said the attack targeted Russia’s largest remaining naval base on the Red Sea, with four warships, including two frigates, hit.

However, the strike also damaged two major grain export terminals in a significant blow to the Kremlin’s war funding.

Maritime intelligence firm reported both terminals have suspended operations in the wake of the attack, robbing Russia of sales from a key export.

In response, Moscow launched counterstrikes on Ukraine’s Izmail port area in the southern Odesa region.

Local officials said the attack caused a blaze, but the full extent of the damage was not immediately clear.

Izmail, which is close to Ukraine’s border with Romania, is home to the nation’s largest Danube port and handles grain in addition to other commodities.

The latest attacks have sparked fresh concerns over shipping in the Black Sea, with Ukraine’s last remaining sea route under increasing threat from Russia.

The Kremlin has consistently attempted to discourage other nations from buying Ukrainian exports, but has stepped up attacks on cargo ships and ports over the course of the summer.

At the same time, Ukraine has taken a more aggressive stance on Russia’s own exports.

Ukrainian officials have justified attacks on Russian grain depots by arguing the products help fund the Kremlin’s invasion and that some exported wheat is being illegally sourced from occupied territory.

Combined, Russia and Ukraine make up a significant share of global grain trade, with North Africa, the Middle East and parts of Asia particularly reliant on exports from both nations.

Pressure on shipping has already lead to a significant drop in Ukraine’s exports, according to the Ukrainian Agribusiness Club (UCAB).

UCAB reported exports fell 23 per cent in a July update, with increased hostilities in and around the Black Sea threatening further falls.

Meanwhile, some estimates have suggested Russian wheat exports during August could drop to more than half their level in the same month over the past five years.

Falling supply could push up costs worldwide, eventually flowing through to consumers in the form of higher prices for staple products – such as bread and cereals.

United States President Donald Trump’s war in Iran is having a similar effect through global oil markets.

The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz has lifted benchmark Brent crude costs from an average of around US$70 dollars a barrel before the conflict to US$87.96 a barrel on Thursday morning.

British households have paid the price in the form of higher petrol and diesel prices, with standard unleaded sitting at an average of 161.5p per litre according to motoring group the RAC.

Modelling presented by Treasury officials to Andy Burnham on Wednesday, first reported by , also suggested the Middle East conflict could drive UK inflation to a peak of 4.3 per cent in the first quarter of next year.

The Prime Minister and Chancellor John Healy were also told economic growth could miss its projected 1.1 per cent rate this year if no peace agreement is reached between the US and Iran.

While higher prices for oil, grain and other commodities, such as fertilisers and petrochemical products, have the most obvious impact on households, the cumulative pressure on shipping from both conflicts is also playing a significant role in stretching family budgets.

Maritime insurance costs rose in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and have since exploded along some routes in the Middle East.

According to research from ratings agency , war-risk insurance in the Strait of Hormuz has risen from between one and three per cent of a ship’s hull value to as much as 10 per cent.

Meanwhile, London-based broker Gibson said port call cover in the Black Sea has roughly doubled in cost since late July, with cargo cover having risen by around the same amount.

Insurance, and the reinsurance markets which underpin it, has a significant impact on shipping.

Major shipping companies will often choose to avoid using routes with high insurance costs, as they can significantly eat into profit margins and make the prospect of transporting goods through high-risk areas unpalatable.

This can push up cargo prices as vessels instead transit via longer, and therefore more expensive, routes and in rare cases affect supply if companies elect instead to simply stop shipping to certain regions entirely.

Higher cargo prices are usually passed on through increased shipping fees, which eventually flow through to businesses and consumers as higher prices across a range of products.

Unlike supply constraints, which can ease relatively quickly and thus ease pressure on prices in a timely manner, insurance costs often lag – markets wait to see whether risks have truly passed before prices fall.

For households, this means Trump’s war and Russia’s invasion have another thing in common: the relative stalemate in both conflicts will likely see pressure on budgets continue for a while yet.