When will the Super El Niño storms hit the UK? Scientists tell Brits to prepare for heavy rain and flooding from October - followed by a 'bitterly cold' winter

After months of record–breaking heat, Brits have been told to prepare for a stormy autumn – thanks to the Super El Niño. 

But when exactly will these storms hit? 

According to scientists, Brits should prepare for 'heavy rainfall and flooding' from as early as October. 

'A strong El Niño is likely to increase the chances of wetter, stormier conditions for the UK from October to December,' said Dr Amulya Chevuturi, senior hydroclimate scientist, UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology.

'The North West is expected to be worse affected than the South East.'

A bit of rain might sound quite appealing following the months of relentless heat.

However, Professor Bill McGuire, Professor Emeritus of Geophysical Hazards, warns that the stormy autumn will likely be followed by a bitterly cold winter.  

'Powerful El Ninos typically bring mild, stormy Autumns and early Winters to the UK, followed by bitter cold, although this isn't set in stone,' he said. 

According to scientists, Brits should prepare for 'heavy rainfall and flooding' from as early as October. Pictured: a resident wades through the water during Storm Desmond in 2015

According to scientists, Brits should prepare for 'heavy rainfall and flooding' from as early as October. Pictured: a resident wades through the water during Storm Desmond in 2015

Experts warn that the 'unprecedented' Super El Niño will cause wetter and stormier weather in the UK during autumn and winter

Experts warn that the 'unprecedented' Super El Niño will cause wetter and stormier weather in the UK during autumn and winter 

According to the Met Office, the UK is on course to record its warmest summer on record – with only average conditions needed for the remainder of August to surpass the record set last year. 

However, as we inch closer to autumn, experts predict a surge in wet and stormy weather, with El Niño to blame.

The El Niño Southern Oscillation is a naturally occurring climate cycle that shifts from hot El Niño years and cool La Niña years once every two to seven years.

As we enter an El Niño phase, the powerful trade winds that normally blow hot water across the Pacific towards Australia weaken, or even reverse.

That prevents cool waters welling up from the deep ocean below and causes hot water to collect near the surface off the west coast of South America.

Eventually, that warm water starts to spread out, causing major disruptions to weather patterns around the globe. 

While much of the UK will see thunderstorms this week, the most devastating storms are set to batter Britain from October, scientists predict. 

Professor McGuire said: 'Traditionally, Autumn storm activity starts in late September or early October. 

Storm Desmond was a severe winter storm that hit the UK in December 2015, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding

Storm Desmond was a severe winter storm that hit the UK in December 2015, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding

How El Niño affect the UK's weather

Early winter: More rain and higher likelihood of storms

Late winter: Very cold and drier conditions 

'In 2024 this began with Storm Ashley on the 20th of the month, and last year with Storm Amy on October 3rd. 

'This year will likely follow a similar pattern. 

'Higher average wind speeds, bigger gusts, and more rain would likely translate into more damages, and a greater cost to homeowners, insurers, and the economy as a whole.'

With much of the England in drought, Dr Akshay Deoras, Senior Research Scientist, National Centre for Atmospheric Science & Department of Meteorology, University of Reading, warns that flooding is more likely.

He said: 'After an exceptionally dry summer across Wales and England, hard, dry soils may struggle to absorb intense rainfall. 

'Heavy downpours could therefore run off quickly, increasing the risk of flash flooding, surface water flooding and disruption. 

'Strong winds could also cause damage and put additional pressure on transport and infrastructure.'

As for what these storms will look like, Professor Hayley Fowler, Professor of Climate Change Impacts, and Director of Centre for Climate and Environmental Resilience at Newcastle University, points to the last strong El Niño.

'The last strong El Niño in 2015-16 produced a series of storms, including the massive flooding from Storm Desmond,' she explained. 

'It is likely we will see similar storms this coming winter.'

Storm Desmond was a severe winter storm that hit the UK in December 2015, bringing heavy rainfall and flooding. 

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Following the stormy autumn, scientists predict we'll experience a bitterly cold winter.

'A cooler, drier winter could increase heating demand and put greater pressure on energy systems,' Dr Deoras added. 

'However, a stronger El Niño does not automatically mean stronger impacts in the UK. 

'Its biggest consequences may instead be indirect, as disruption to global agriculture and energy demand feeds through into food prices and energy costs.'

Original source When will the Super El Niño storms hit the UK? Scientists tell Brits to prepare for heavy rain and flooding from October - followed by a 'bitterly cold' winter

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