Believe the bookies and it’s already all over, Labour will win the Holborn and St Pancras by-election.

Labour’s candidate Sagal Abdi-Wali is 1-33 favourite, followed by Green Party leader Zack Polanski on 12-1, then George Galloway, between 100-1 and 200-1 but who could still influence the election’s outcome.

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats are into high cricket score odds.

On polling day, Andy Burnham issued a last minute appeal to voters as Mr Polanski claimed the contest is “close”.

A look at the numbers shows why Mr Polanski has taken the big gamble of throwing his hat into the ring in Holborn and St Pancras.

At the 2024 general election, Labour won the seat with a majority, of 11,572.

Sir Keir Starmer gained 18,884 votes, with the Greens far behind in third place with 4,030.

So, at first glance, Mr Polanski has little chance.

However, independent candidate Andrew Feinstein got 7,312 votes just over two years ago.

He has urged his previous backers to support Mr Polanski which, if the vast majority do, could boost his chances of a strong challenge to Labour and possibly even of victory.

The numbers may be starting to stack up more favourably for the Green leader.

Polls also suggest that Labour may have lost around a quarter of its vote in London during Sir Keir’s premiership, highlighted by the Green Party’s success at the May local elections in the capital.

The numbers may now look increasingly enticing to Mr Polanski who previously listed a string of London seats which he would contest, including Holborn and St Pancras, if there was a vacancy.

But things then get more difficult for the Greens.

Labour has risen in the polls since Mr Burnham became Prime Minister in the summer, with suggestions that peak-Polanski may have passed as some voters return from the Green Party to the Labour fold.

A new MRP poll by YouGov suggested that the Greens would win no MPs in London, if there was a general election tomorrow, with Labour holding onto 51 of the 59 it currently has in the capital.

Mr Polanski’s hopes of a historic victory have also almost certainly been dented by George Galloway’s decision to enter the contest which could split the Left-leaning, anti-Labour vote.

Suddenly, the numbers are looking more tricky for the Green leader.

He has sought to blitz the north London constituency with hundreds of activists in a mass campaigning operation every day up into polling day.

Labour chiefs, though, believe they are outnumbering the Greens on the ground, that some people are returning to the party and that some Tory and Liberal Democrat supporters are considering backing Ms Abdi-Wali, leader of Camden Council, in an anti-Polanski vote.

His campaign has also been rocked by Green members voting to declare Zionism as racism at their party conference in Brighton.

So, the numbers in Holborn and St Pancras do seem to be looking increasingly more Red than Green.

If Mr Polanski loses all eyes will be on the size of Labour’s majority.

If he trails by a few thousand, he could argue he may fare better in Hackney or Lewisham at the next general election.

But if he loses heavily, questions will inevitably grow about his leadership.