Nigeria’s hopes of qualifying for next summer’s Africa Cup of Nations have taken a major hit, after a shock defeat to Guinea-Bissau.

The Super Eagles, who back in November failed in their attempts to overturn an agonising play-off defeat on penalties to the DR Congo as they missed out on the World Cup for the second time in succession, were beaten 3-0 at the Estadio 24 de Setembro on Tuesday evening.

Franculino Dju broke the deadlock as early as the 15th minute with a curling effort that Nigeria goalkeeper Stanley Nwabali should have saved, before Mama Balde doubled Guinea-Bissau’s lead shortly after the hour mark with a shot that went in off the post.

To rub further salt into the wounds, Alvaro Djalo added a third deep in stoppage time to seal a famous win for the home side.

While the result leaves Nigeria sitting in second place in their AFCON 2027 qualification group, three points behind leaders Guinea-Bissau, it’s important to remember a runners-up spot may not be enough to advance to next summer’s tournament.

This is because Tanzania are also in Group L and have already qualified for AFCON 2027 by virtue of being co-hosts alongside Kenya and Uganda.

A statement reads: “The competition will begin on Saturday, 19 June 2027, with the opening match. The final will be played on Saturday, 17 July 2027.

“These dates give the tournament a clear one-month window and allow CAF, the hosts, teams, broadcasters and supporters to plan well in advance. The exact match schedule, venues and kick-off times will be announced later by CAF.”

As such, as only the highest-placed team in Group L, along with Tanzania, will advance AFCON 2027.

By losing to Guinea-Bissau, Nigeria have no margin for error from here on in. The likely scenario is they will have to take six points from their double-header against Tanzania in November and then beat Madagascar away from home early next year.

Should Guinea-Bissau match those results, it will set up a winner-take-all match between the two nations in March 2027 where the Super Eagles could find themselves needing to win by at least three goals.